Chicago Cubs Series Preview: Youth, inexperience big hurdles for Miami Marlins

The Chicago Cubs open the 2018 regular season with a series against a Miami Marlins team rife with inexperience and a lack of star power in the lineup.

Expectations couldn’t be further apart for the Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins heading into 2018. The former expects to bring home a second World Series championship in the last three years, while the latter hopes to avoid losing 100 games.

An offseason ownership change and subsequent fire sale dominated headlines in South Beach. Miami traded Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich – loading up on prospects in the deals. Add in late spring injuries and the Marlins have more questions than answers as Opening Day nears.

Chicago, meanwhile, played well pretty much from start-to-finish in Cactus League action. Reliable veteran southpaw Jon Lester will take the ball on Opening Day with one of the most talented, albeit young, lineups in the game behind him.

So, how do these clubs measure up? It sure seems obvious given what we just touched on, but here’s what you need to know ahead of this season-opening showdown.

Heading into the series: Miami Marlins

Record: 0-0, T-1st in National League East

Record (Last 10): 0-0

Team ERA: 0.00

Team OBP: .000

Team HR: 0

Team Leader (WAR): N/A

Brinson headlines the new Marlins’ core

Miami netted one of the game’s best prospects in Lewis Brinson when they dealt Yelich to Milwaukee. With a clear path to the bigs, the young outfielder could lead off when Miami and the Cubs open the season on Thursday.

MLB.com broke down Miami’s likely Opening Day lineup in a post covering the team’s late spring injuries. Here’s what they came up with:

Projected Opening Day lineup

1. Lewis Brinson, CF
2. Derek Dietrich, LF
3. Starlin Castro, 2B
4. Justin Bour, 1B
5. Brian Anderson, 3B
6. Tomas Telis, C
7. Cameron Maybin, RF
8. Miguel Rojas, SS
9. Jose Urena, RHP

For Cubs fans, they’ll remember Brinson from his brief stint in Milwaukee last season. He slashed a disappointing .106/.236/.277 in a limited 21 game sample size. But, according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, he enters the season as the game’s 18th overall prospect.

Starlin Castro could have a real shot at 100 RBI this year with a strong showing in the middle of the Marlins batting order. Pitchers won’t work around him too much given Justin Bour is sitting right behind him in the lineup. Once Miami gets some added protection in there in the form of the injured Martin Prado and J.T. Realmuto, the lineup gets a lot deeper.

Cubs have a clear edge when it comes to pitching

Game 1: Thursday, March 29 – 11:40 a.m. CT | Jon Lester (0-0, 0.00) v Jose Urena (0-0, 0.00)

Even in a loaded Cubs rotation, veteran Jon Lester takes the ball for Opening Day. Last year was a bit of a rough-and-tumble campaign for the lefty, who pitched to a 4.33 ERA, 4.10 FIP and 1.323 WHIP. This spring, though, Lester got off to a strong start – finishing the spring with a 2.81 ERA in four outings.

In his career at Marlins Park, Lester has made three starts – allowing 18 hits and 11 runs in 19 innings of work. His last outing there, however, was a seven-inning start where he allowed just three earned – so there’s cause for hope.

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Opposite Lester, young right-hander Jose Urena starts for the Marlins. While his overall numbers were solid in 2017 in what many tabbed a ‘breakout’ campaign, his metrics are a cause for concern. A 5.20 FIP and 1.77 strikeout-to-walk ratio are hardly confidence-inspiring.

Game 2: Friday, March 30 – 6:10 p.m. CT | Kyle Hendricks (0-0, 0.00) v Caleb Smith (0-0, 0.00)

Kyle Hendricks starts 2018 looking to take that final step to ‘ace’ status. He shocked the baseball world with a Top 3 Cy Young finish two years ago, but needs to show he’s the real deal after an injury-plagued 2017.

The soft-tossing righty has dominated the Marlins in his career, with a 1.32 ERA in four outings. He certainly won’t be hurt in his bid for his first win of the season by the fact his counterpart is a largely unproven commodity.

Caleb Smith has a whopping two career big league starts under his belt – and they didn’t go well. Brought up primarily as a reliever, he failed to pitch out of the fourth in both of his outing as a member of the Yankees in 2017. This spring, he struggled with control and looks – at best – to be a questionable member of the Miami rotation.

Heading into the series: Chicago Cubs

Record: 0-0, T-1st in National League Central

Record (Last 10): 0-0

Team ERA: 0.00

Team OBP: .000

Team HR: 0

Team Leader (WAR): N/A

Schwarber, Happ look to be difference-makers in 2018

At this point, you pretty much know you’re going to get MVP-level performances from Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. But they alone can’t carry the Cubs to a second World Series title in three seasons. For that to happen, other guys need to step up.

That starts with the presumed leadoff hitter Ian Happ. Heading into his first full big league campaign, the switch-hitting outfielder absolutely raked this spring – to the tune of a 1.211 OPS. This ultimately displaced Albert Almora and landed him the leadoff gig. After Dexter Fowler left, the team struggled to find any type of spark atop the lineup – so hopefully Happ fills that void.

Flanking him in the outfield on one side – Kyle Schwarber. He also tore up Cactus League pitching this spring after his dramatic offseason transformation. Now, he needs it to translate to the Show in 2018. If he becomes more of a true hitter instead of a strikeout-homer slugger, as he was in the past, this lineup gets dangerously deep in a hurry.

Projected Opening Day lineup

1. Ian Happ, CF
2. Kris Bryant, 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
4. Willson Contreras, C
5. Kyle Schwarber, LF
6. Addison Russell, SS
7. Jason Heyward, RF
8. Javier Baez, SS
9. Jon Lester, P

Heh. As if it weren’t already dangerously deep…

Series Prediction: Cubs sweep Miami – get off to hot start

Remember when the Chicago Cubs absolutely tore out of the gates two years ago? I anticipate something very similar in 2018.

Simply put, even without comparing the lineups and taking Miami’s injury woes into account, the pitching imbalance is just too much to overlook. When Jose Quintana starts the series finale of a four-game set, that tells you just about all you need to know.

Next: Looking into the crystal ball - our predictions for 2018

The Cubs should – and likely – will capitalize on a very young Marlins roster that lacks any real impact talent or fan support at home. Look for Joe Maddon‘s club to jump on these starters early and often – punishing any mistakes in the zone.