Chicago Cubs: In a game of inches, this is what to watch for this season

Baseball is a game of inches, continual adjustment and human dynamics. Digging into its nuances can make following the 2018 Chicago Cubs an even richer experience.

Opening Day heralds the return of baseball excitement. For the pure fan in me, that means eagerly watching how well Kyle Schwarber thumps (especially the opposite way), how many guys Yu Darvish fans and whether Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant keep rocking steady.

Digging deeper, the baseball aficionado in me equally loves tracking the game’s many consequential small nuances. Consider how Dexter Fowler’s improved his 2016 outfield defense by positioning a few steps deeper each play. Or how Kris Bryant nearly hit .300 hitter last year by dropping his K rate to 19 percent and upping his two-strike batting average 20 points each of the past two seasons.

So here are five nuances I’m tracking this year. And please share those you are personally watching.

1. Baez’s playing time

This year could be pivotal in Javier Baez’s relationship with the organization. To this point, Joe Maddon has smartly used playing time to encourage more plate discipline and consistency on routine defensive plays. But whenever Baez seemed ready to start full-time, the old cockiness and bad habits reappeared.

This happened after Baez snagged 2016 NLCS Co-MVP honors. Then in the World Series, his 20 percent playoff strikeout percentage spiked to 43 percent, and he hit just .167 with a couple errors. Then after a strong 2017 second half, his playoff plate discipline again evaporated, hanging him with a .076 average and 42 percent strikeout rate.

So does Maddon again play carrot-and-stick with playing time? Will Baez stay the dutiful soldier? Or with his first year of arbitration pending after the season, does Baez demand the respect of everyday playing time? Does he air these complaints publicly?

Aroldis Chapman, Miguel Montero and Mike Montgomery all went public before him. Two of them are no longer Cubs. Worth watching.

2. Hendricks’ efficiency deficiency

I’ve deeply enjoyed watching Kyle Hendricks make a joke of every low-ceiling scouting report that predicted nothing better than a AAAA-fifth starter. But last year, Hendricks definitely hit a development wall. His rising pitch-count inefficiency is now his biggest hurdle to becoming that true 200 inning-plus ace.

What happened is the league now has a “book” on him. It says once up in the count, he’ll predictably nibble outside the zone before re-setting-up his change. Just wait him out and take your chances with a 2-2 or 3-2 count. Maybe you hit it, maybe not, but at least you push up his pitch count and get him lifted by the sixth inning or earlier.

As his pitches per batters faced (P/BF) keeps increasing, Hendricks needs to adjust.

Year       Pitches     Batters     P/BF
2014       1,156         321           3.6
2015       2,793         739           3.7
2016       2,888         745           3.8
2017       2,276         570           4.0

To get more early outs, Hendricks must become less predictable mid-count. Two or three times a game on 0-2 and 1-and-2 counts, he should bust someone inside in the zone or drop a curveball in. By making hitters guess more mid-count, more bats will offer earlier in the count – including at those out-of-zone nibblers – and get him deeper into games.

4. Back to the offensive grinder

In 2017, the Cubs’ high-powered offense slumped significantly in October. Its K-rate jumped from 22 percent to 33 percent. Plus in five games against L.A., the lineup managed just eight runs – all on homers.

In his annual wrap-up news conference, Theo Epstein reflected on this:

“You have to evaluate. Is it the fact that all offense is depressed in October? Is it a small sample? Is it a coincidence?” he said. “It is virtually impossible to answer [with certainty], except to say you are safer to assume there is some element you can control.”

The one controllable element Epstein identified was his young players’ plate approach. He emphasized their need for more consistently grinding at-bats. This means chasing fewer pitches, spoiling more pitchers’ pitches, and employing a better two-strike approach.

Useful criteria are K rate and pitches seen per AB (P/AB). So whenever the Cubs face an elite pitcher, scrutinize how deep into counts hitters battle. Must the opposing starter throw 90 pitches by the fifth inning? When retired, are hitters quickly start chasing or do they first spoil a few tough pitches?

And young hitters who don’t excel at this? Well, watch if their name(s) gets mentioned more in proposed July 31 deadline deals.

5. Heyward’s double stroke

Asked this winter by NBC Sports who will be the Cubs’ 2018 MVP, Jason Heyward answered “me.” Your guess whether this is just sports psychology positivity or his real belief. But with an opt-out clause this year and next, he has every incentive to rebound for one more bite at the free-agency apple.

I’m not foolish enough to bet on this, but the last time Heyward had a walk year (2015), he posted his best WAR (6.6). If you’re looking for a rebound indicator, watch that doubles rate. This was the main difference between his 2015 and 2017. Last year, he managed roughly the same homer, walk and K rate as 2015, but just 17 doubles versus 33 in 2015.

Interestingly, those who think he hits too many grounders and not enough line drives aren’t correct. Heyward’s line-drive rate is essentially unchanged since 2015, and his groundball rate dropped from 58 percent to 49 percent last year.

What has changed is his contact has weakened. This reflects fewer hard-hit one-hoppers going past (or off) infielders and fewer hard-hit line drives getting past outfielders to the wall.

Going Chili to get hot

To my eye, both are symptomatic of a swing exploding too near the center axis of his body. To create more force on contact, activation of hips and wrists should time together further out front. Homerun hitters do this in an extreme way, and contact double hitters more moderately.

Next: Happ-y times at leadoff

It’s too early to know if his winter work with hitting coach Chili Davis will correct any of this. For those who enjoy tea leaves, his doubles rate this spring is twice what it was last camp. However, his K rate also jumped from 17 percent to 25 percent. Does this indicate starting to apply a more aggressive doubles stroke that just needs more regular season reps? Or a small sample aberration?

Impossible to know until the games count. And by then, I hope you enjoy studying all these fun baseball nuances and any shared by readers below.