Chicago Cubs: Week two spring training report

The second week of spring training brought another dominant week from the Chicago Cubs – as well as some impending roster moves for low-level guys.

Each week, I will review the “week that was” in Cubs Spring Training. We’ll review on field play, off field news, and the latest projected 40- and 25-man roster. This installment covers week two of Spring Training, from March 2 through Friday, March 9.

While week one of Spring Training brought reason for optimism, week two may well have brought cause for pure giddiness. Winning seven of their eight games this past week, the Cubs sit atop the Cactus League at 11-2-2. Their .846 win percentage is tops in baseball.

Scoring Runs in Bunches

Once again reflecting on record – as was cautioned in last week’s report – Spring Training won-loss records are relatively meaningless. Yes, it is wonderful to have your team hit the ground running. But most of the games are decided by career minor-leaguers or kids with little to no experience. Truly discerning what is noteworthy in terms of spring performances requires a more thorough investigation.

During the second full week of Spring Training play, the Cubs scored an impressive 54 runs (while giving up 30). In 68 full innings of play (covering eight games), they scored at least one run in nearly 40 percent of these innings. Chicago put up crooked numbers in 14 of those innings and three or more in half those.

Scoring runs aplenty early this year

As of March 9, only four teams had scored more than the Cubs’ 97 runs, and two of these teams have played more games.

Of equal – or perhaps even greater significance – is HOW they are scoring runs. The Cubs had hit 18 home runs heading into weekend play, placing them firmly middle of the pack in this regard. In comparison, the four teams scoring more than Chicago (SF, LAD, SD, CLE) are the four teams atop the league in terms of home runs hit this spring.

In summary, the Cubs are scoring a ton of runs without depending on the long ball to get those runs home. This portends nicely as one would have to assume the likes of Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, Schwarber and Co. will hit their homers. Being able to score the “old fashioned way” should open up their offense in ways that they struggled with in 2017.

Making a Case for the Roster

While the first week provided limited clarity, major league level pitching is beginning to come more into play as the spring progresses. Where starters were getting a handful of outs, they are now seeing multiple innings of work and fringe players are given fewer chances to make their case. The result is a more “meaningful” set of results that management can begin to use to determine how the roster will look come April.

For Chicago, it has become increasingly clear that two position players are emerging. David Bote continues to perform to a level that is getting him noticed in camp. His .303/.361/.444 line has him now seeing a more regular look. Where he was once a roster longshot, he may at the very least now be on the short list of early season call ups should he not break camp with the big league club.

As solid as Bote’s play has been, another roster outsider, Mike Freeman, has been borderline spectacular. Freeman leads all qualified players in both batting average (.560) and on-base percentage (.621). He has played solid defense and has not yet looked overmatched, even against top tier starting pitching.

Stars Begin to Shine

In terms of those players who were already assured roster spots, Kyle Schwarber has started to mash (home runs in back-to-back games) but is still striking out at a high rate. Ian Happ has all but locked up both the starting center field job and will be a prime candidate to at least start the season as a viable leadoff hitting option. He is batting in the neighborhood of .400 with considerable power.

This past week of baseball has also shown us that Kris Bryant (.417/.533) and Anthony Rizzo (.350/.435/.700) are rounding into regular season form. Each is picking their spots as Joe Maddon is managing their playing time. Rizzo has been hammering the baseball through much of the spring. Bryant is showing considerable patience at the plate and, though his power hasn’t yet come, it’s clear his timing is improving.

Even Albert Almora and Addison Russell, who both got off to dreadful starts, have begun to hit. Almora smacked a couple of homers and made the catch of the spring on defense. Russell has started to make solid, consistent contact at the plate as well.

Pitching is Coming Around

As for the pitching, it is still very early to truly try to assign any particular import to the numbers. Of note though, relievers Justin Wilson and Carl Edwards, Jr. have combined to pitch seven scoreless innings. Both are throwing with great velocity and have commanded the strike zone well (no walks, seven strikeouts between them).

Yu Darvish saw his first action of the season this past week and, while he didn’t overwhelm, it was a good first look for a pitcher from whom much is expected. The balance of the starting rotation is rounding into shape and haven’t provided any performances that would raise the level of concern.

If you are looking for a surprise story this spring from the Cubs pitching staff, there really isn’t one. The only real drama is whether or not Justin Grimm will hold on to his spot among the expected eight man bullpen. Grimm has been hit hard (6.00 ERA, .250 BAA) so far this spring in limited opportunities. Still, smart money says the veteran will be given a shot to show what he has in the early season before being demoted.

Roster Moves and Injury News

Late in the week, the Cubs did announce a couple of roster moves, though none are particularly surprising. Top pitching prospects Adbert Alzolay, Oscar De La Cruz, and Duane Underwood, Jr. were optioned to Double-A Tennessee, eliminating any chance of any of the three to lock up a surprise roster spot on opening day. Each of the three promising arms stand to be in the future plans for the Cubs, but the future isn’t now.

On the injury front, this spring has been relatively calm, which is never a bad thing. The Cubs did run into their first real injury, though, in the form of Javy Baez and a balky hamstring. In legging out an RBI double, Baez came up gimpy during a game against the Padres. Subsequent tests, including an MRI, have come back negative, so at this point it seems like a bullet was dodged. But hamstring injuries tend to linger, so don’t expect to see Javy for a week or so.

In the same game, prospect Chesny Young also got banged up a bit, but that doesn’t seem to be anything that will impact the youngster going forward.

Projected Roster

Each week, I will provide and update on the most likely roster scenarios for both the 25- and 40-man roster. To better gauge the fluidity of the roster, I will point out the “last three in” and “first three out”. This will provide a glimpse into the players to watch when it comes to who may – and who may not – make the final cut…

40-Man Roster (Projected as of 3/1)

The following players are currently the favorites to make the 40-man Cubs roster:

Last Three In:  C Chris Gimenez, IF Mike Freeman, OF Peter Bourjos

First Three Out:  P Cory Mazzoni, P Jen-Ho Tseng, P Luke Farrell

25-Man Active Roster (Projected as of 3/1)

The following players are currently the favorites to make the Opening Day Active Roster:

Last Three In:  IF Tommy La Stella, P Justin Grimm, P Brian Duensing

First Three Out:  P Shae Simmons, IF David Bote, IF Mike Freeman