Chicago Cubs: A back-end starter won’t cut it this time around

With free agency moving at a snail’s pace, the Chicago Cubs can – and should – remain patient. They can no longer settle for lesser acquisitions.

With the New York Mets’ reported signing of free agent third baseman Todd Frazier on Monday, everyone – including the Chicago Cubs – can hope a thaw is coming. We’re not talking about temperatures, either. Free agency continues to proceed slower than ever, leaving almost every big-name free agent on the market in the first week of February.

As for Chicago, they still need one more starting pitcher. Sure, Mike Montgomery could fill that void. At certain points this offseason, I actually felt like that may be a more prudent option. We know guys like Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta are likely seeking nine-figure deals. With a historic free agent class on the horizon at season’s end, teams are hoarding money like never before in attempts to sneak under the luxury tax threshold.

But I am no longer of that mindset. Allowing someone like Montgomery to round out the rotation isn’t an answer. It’s a cop-out. As would be a low-end signing such as Chris Tillman. Nothing against either guy, but we’re past the point of depending on reclamation projects and converted arms.

Chicago is seeking an unprecedented fourth-straight NLCS appearance in 2018. To achieve that goal, the Cubs will likely have to go head-to-head with the Los Angeles Dodgers or Washington Nationals. Whichever one they don’t meet in the Division Series seems probable to be waiting in the LCS.

And, simply put, without another impact starter, the Cubs enter such matchups at a disadvantage – at least in terms of starting pitching.

Cubs starters need to step up in 2018

Personally, I’m a huge Kyle Hendricks guy. He’s not flashy and doesn’t feature the repertoire of Kershaw or Mad Max, but this guy gets the job done. He’s as consistent as any Cubs starters we’ve seen in decades and, again, is criminally under appreciated in Chicago and across baseball.

But let’s assume he’s your ace (as I believe he is as the rotation currently stands).

Behind the soft-tossing right-hander, Chicago turns to veteran lefties Jon Lester and Jose Quintana. Between the three of them, they totaled just a 7.2 WAR – less than half of what Washington’s three-headed monster put up last season.

Adding Yu Darvish (3.5 WAR) to that mix would make him the Cubs’ highest WAR pitcher – based on last year’s performance. Now, to be sure, I expect a more stable Jon Lester in 2018 – but his best days are probably behind him. I also understand that comparing rotations using only WAR is not a fair assessment and there is a lot more that goes into evaluation in today’s game.

But I think it makes a good point, as well. Chicago boasts one of the most potent position player cores in all of Major League Baseball. Not supplementing that with a top-tier rotation worthy of going head-to-head with Washington and Los Angeles would be a travesty of the highest level.

Next: Here's how the Cubs should line up in 2018

Mike Montgomery and Chris Tillman are fine big league pitchers. But as rotation members, they don’t get you a World Series championship. And, make no mistake, that’s what this Cubs team is all about in 2018.