Chicago Cubs: Who is the ace of this pitching staff?

If the Chicago Cubs fail to add another arm to the rotation, it’s not in that bad of shape. With a top three of Jon Lester, Jose Quintana and Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs can hang with anyone. But which of those three is the ace of the staff?

Let’s just assume that the Chicago Cubs won’t be adding anyone else to the rotation. They very well could, but that will give us a chance to write about something else don the road. But for now, the Cubs pitching staff with a solid top three, a strong fourth, and a mystery at the five-spot. So who is the undisputed ace of the team?

I’ll be taking a look at the three biggest arms in the Cubs’ rotation. Jon Lester, Jose Quintana and Kyle Hendricks all seem to have something special about them. Tyler Chatwood might be the darkhorse of the group, but we’ll assume he’ll remain just that. So let’s delve into the other three and see who stands a little taller.

Jose Quintana – LHP

Last season, Jose Quintana appeared to be a good pitcher on a lousy team. So the Cubs traded notable prospects Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez to get him. Under contract for another three years at a team-friendly rate, the hope is that Quintana will break free and become that pitcher he wanted to become–but was held back by the team. That already seems to be the case in the small sample size for Quintana.

In 18 games started for the Chicago White Sox, he was an unimpressive 4-8 with a with a 4.49 ERA. Upon coming over to the other side of Chicago, it was if the weight of being on a losing team had been lifted off his shoulders. In his first start with the Cubs, Quintana went seven innings, striking out 12 Orioles on his way to an 8-0 win.

While there were a few hiccups along the way, he showed what he was capable of on the right side of Chicago. His K/9 went up from 9.4 to 10.5, while his BB/9 dropped from 3.5 to 2.2. This helped him to a 7-3 record for the Cubs with a 3.74 ERA. And it all culminated in a complete game shutout against the Milwaukee Brewers on Sept. 24. A game that helped the Cubs to close out the Central Division against the Brewers.

For Quintana, the upside is high. With three more years left on his contract, he could end up being the Cubs ace. But is this something we’re ready to anoint him with now? While it was an impressive beginning to his Cubs career, it was just 14 games. But his potential is there. It’s just a matter if the ability will come with it.

Kyle Hendricks – RHP

I don’t think there is a more unassuming “ace” than Kyle Hendricks. I almost want to appoint him the winner because nothing will change. Nothing. But we have to dig into the numbers to see if he could be the ace of this staff, or if he’s better as a No. 2 or 3. But can you believe that this was our fifth starter just a few years ago? Gives some hope to Chatwood coming along, but I digress.

Projections for Hendricks are tight because of the time he missed due to the hand injury. His Marcels projection has him at a 9-6 record with a 3.22 ERA. But that only has him down for 148 innings. This is someone who–even with the injury–posted an ERA+ of 144 last season. And that was coming off a 196 in 2016. These are spectacular numbers for a pitcher who doesn’t overpower and knows how to pitch, not throw.

Only one-time last season did Hendricks get “hammered,” and that was allowing five runs in five innings against the San Diego Padres. And this was during a stretch before the injury that may have attributed to his poor performance. Once he came back from it, however, he was as good as he was before. In his last 13 games of the regular season, Hendricks ERA was a minuscule 2.19, striking out 72 while walking just 19. He gave up 17 home runs, with the fewer innings pitched was a bit of a concern. But they didn’t harm him as much as other pitchers on the staff.

So is Hendricks ready to be the guy on this staff? He doesn’t throw hard. He won’t put you away with high heat, but a well-placed changeup. When you look at his numbers, strikeouts aren’t going to impress you. You really need to be a fan of metrics to appreciate how good he is. But is he good enough to get the ball on Opening Day?

It’s Lester’s for now

Lester had an up-and-down season in 2017, but I don’t see it as the new norm. After many of the Cubs players had stupendous seasons in 2016, there was going to be a regression to the mean. Only in a lot of these cases, they went past that. I think Lester will come back closer to his career numbers. Age isn’t necessarily on his side. But left-handers tend to last longer, and I think Lester will be no different from that.

Lester has a certain “gamer” mentality about him. Even when he doesn’t have his best stuff, he’ll find a way to gut it out and do what he can. This season, that was a 13-8 record while the Cubs went 19-13 in his starts. The Cubs have made some changes to the bullpen that might help to rectify some of the games that were lost late. We’ll just have to see about that.

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But for now, I can’t take this away from Lester until he gives it up. And I don’t think there would be another pitcher happier to see Hendricks or Quintana take that role from him. But that’s why I’d give Lester the ball on Opening Day. He’s earned it.