Chicago Cubs don’t need a blockbuster move to be ready for 2018

Middle infield reinforcements

Of course, most of the talk surrounding Addison Russell this winter has revolved around his potential trade value. After driving in a career-high 95 runs in 2016, Russell appeared in just 110 games, slashing .239/.304/.418 with 43 RBI.

In terms of OPS, he wasn’t that far off his 2016 performance (.722 to .738). But when you more than halve your RBI production, people take notice. Throw in his early-season off-the-field issues and it’s easy to understand how evaluators and fans have soured a bit on him.

Another middle infield piece (who also sees more than his share of time in the outfield) is due to rebound in Ben Zobrist. The 2016 World Series MVP put up some of the worst numbers of his career last season. His on-base percentage plummeted from .386 to .318 year-over-year. His OPS+ fell 41 points and he slugged below .700 for the first time since 2010.

With two years and a sizable $29 million remaining on his contract, the Cubs need Zobrist to bring some value to the dish. And, in 2017, he failed to do so more often than not. With that kind of money, you have to hit over .270 more than two months out of the season. This rings especially true when you consider the underperforming Jason Heyward, as well.

Heyward taking baby steps in the right direction

When the Chicago Cubs signed Jason Heyward to his franchise record eight-year, $184 million contract, we expected the best. I mean, why wouldn’t we? In the 2015 NLDS, the then-Cardinals outfielder put up a 1.080 OPS against Chicago.

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Defensively, we all knew (and know) what he’s capable of. For four-straight campaigns, Heyward took home the National League Gold Glove for right fielders. There’s no debating what he means to the Cubs in the outfield. But his work with the bat has left plenty to be desired, to say the least.

His debut season coincided with the team’s World Series title. Of course, he’s earned a spot in baseball lore for his Game 7 locker room speech that rallied the Cubs during the rain delay. But, on the diamond, he did little to earn his keep – despite his astounding efforts to improve.

Trending up?

In 2016, he slashed .230/.306/.325 – good for a career-low .631 OPS. He improved that mark to .715 last year, but that still ranked as the third-lowest OPS he’d ever put up in a season. Granted, he brought home his aforementioned fourth consecutive Gold Glove, so there’s value there.

All told, he was a 2.3 WAR player, according to Baseball Reference. But with a staggering $132 million left on his contract, the Cubs need more production to get any type of fair return on this deal.

Already hard at work in Arizona, I have faith in Jason Heyward. With another step forward in 2018, the Cubs outfielder will be right back in line with his career averages.

What should we expect from Lester moving forward?

When the Chicago Cubs recruited Jon Lester, he was pitched on the idea of bringing a title to Wrigley Field. And, less than two years after signing on the dotted line, he did just that.

Over the course of the 2016 campaign, the southpaw was one of the best pitchers in the game. He won 19 games for the second time in his career and finished second in NL Cy Young voting. That is due largely in-part to a 2.44 earned run average over the course of 202 2/3 innings.

You can’t ask for more than what Lester turned in.

But, call it what you want – a World Series hangover, the effects of a deep postseason – whatever it is, Lester struggled in a big way in 2017. His earned run average spiked by nearly two full runs (up from 2.44 to 4.33) and his strikeout-to-walk ratio was his worst since 2013.

If you look at ERA+, Lester was a league-average starter last season, despite his struggles (100 on the nose). In his All-Star 2016 campaign, by contrast, he clocked in at a 171 ERA+. I don’t expect him to ever put up another full season like he did as the team’s ace two years ago.

You already got what you’re paying Lester for – a World Series championship. Moving forward, he’ll be a mid-to-high 3.00 ERA pitcher who will get you 12 to 15 wins annually. If you ask me, that’s enough to get the Cubs back to the postseason again in 2018.

Can Justin Grimm get back to his 2015 form?

It was not so long ago that Justin Grimm was one of the best relievers in Joe Maddon‘s arsenal. During the team’s breakout 2015 campaign, the right-hander posted a 1.99 ERA in 62 appearances, with a career-high 12.1 strikeouts per nine.

But since then, it’s been a different bag for the 29-year-old reliever.

Over the last two seasons, Grimm owns a 4.83 earned run average over 118 appearances. His 4.35 FIP indicates that it’s not exactly a fluke, either. He continues to struggle balancing strikeouts with walks, but still managed to punch out hitters at north of one per inning since 2016.

When the Cubs designated Hector Rondon for assignment, many, myself included, thought Grimm would be the off man out. But the Cubs see something in the right-hander. If he wants to earn his spot and regain the trust of Joe Maddon, though, he needs to take it back to the drawing board heading into 2018.

Next: Breaking down Cubs' five best trades since 1980

I’m not suggesting the Cubs will get across-the-board improvement from these guys in 2018. Some will improve and others will struggle – that’s just the way it goes. But if two or three of these pieces get back to doing what they’ve done in the past, Chicago could be poised for a return to the Fall Classic.