Chicago Cubs: Your way too early 2018 season predictions

Kyle Hendricks wins ’18

2016 was the year Hendricks showed why he’ll eventually command a Lester sized contract. Check out his slash line: 2.13 ERA, 196 strikeouts to just 44 walks and an impressive 0.979 WHIP – all on a $561,000 salary. He backslid in 2017, giving up more home runs (17) in fewer innings (139) than 2016, but out of fairness the newly-crowned Cubs ace was recovering from an injury.

I believe during the 2018 season, the man goes into beast mode, and I’ll explain why.

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Most of the National League contending teams like Washington, Los Angeles and St. Louis haven’t hit Hendricks particularly well. In fact, before St. Louis‘ acquisition of Marcell Ozuna, only Dexter Fowler (.400 career vs. Hendricks) and Milwaukee’s Travis Shaw (.333) did significant damage to Hendricks in the Central. Ozuna isn’t ‘over-the-top’ great against him (.300, 2B, 3 RBI), so I’m not particularly concerned if Ozuna hits 50 homers as none will come against Hendricks  anyway.

Yes, Joey Votto did hit Kyle well (.500, 2,2), but Votto hits everyone well. And we’re all relatively certain Cincinnati’s willingness to offload Cozart and listen to offers on speedster Billy Hamilton means an impending fire sale is obvious, so whatever Votto does against Hendricks is moot.

As Chicago invites pitchers and catchers in February, he will be more mentally complete and physically healed than 2017.

I’m giving Kyle an 18-7 record, 2.59 earned run average and 180/41 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a home run to boot.

Chicago produces two 40 HR, 100 RBI players

It’s going to happen this 2018 season, folks.

More than half of the Cubs’ young lineup is capable of providing souvenirs. New hitting coach Chili Davis knows his way around the long-ball, as well. He hit 350 homers in his career on a .274 lifetime average over 19 seasons. John Mallee, Davis’ predecessor, lacked that big-league experience. I think it makes a difference.

Yes, it takes patience at the dish to refine the home run craft. Davis drew 1194 walks in his career. The Cubs hope he can help infuse patience into the team’s young power hitters.

The Chicago Cubs produced six 20-plus home run hitters during 2017, which may have been seven had Addison Russell played 35 more games. So we know the young squad is more than just defensively inclined.

The 2018 season will feature two 40-homer, 100-RBI players. The obvious choices are Rizzo and Schwarber, provided he’s not lured away to a DH-friendly team. I wouldn’t sleep on Bryant, however, because the man has proven his ability to patiently wait for a pitching mistake.

Harpermania will heat up in August

Dave Martinez refuses to admit Bryce Harper is leaving after the 2018 season to continue his budding bromance with Kris Bryant. One year out, Cubs fans are already salivating at the thought. Could Chicago add the NL-equivalent to Mike Trout to an organization already boasting several players heading into their prime?

Money won’t be a problem, even with impending pay raises coming for Bryant, Contreras and Rizzo. A new television deal forthcoming, a massive nationwide following and another division title may be all the convincing Harper needs.

I believe a healthy Noah Syndergaard in New York, coupled with Philadelphia’s desire to rebuild quickly will make the East a much tougher division. Let’s not forget Washington’s lineup shortcomings: Daniel Murphy, perhaps the best all-around second baseman in the National League, will miss playing time early.

The Nationals’ biggest strength? Its dominant trio of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez atop the rotation. In other words, Harper may want to join a more youthful ball club with equally deep pockets in a larger market. Enter the Chicago Cubs.

So midway through the 2018 season, expect Harpermania to erupt in Chicago.

Chatwood shines, Morrow stellar for Cubs 

Many predicted Alex Cobb would be Chicago’s first major offseason acquisition. An even larger group of lifelong fans (present company included) prayed Chicago would win the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes.

Instead, Epstein took a three-year, $38 million leap of faith on Tyler Chatwood. The right-hander owns an abysmal 4.31 career ERA. Fans scratched their heads, looked at his solid ground ball rate and agreed Theo made the right choice. When you take him out of Coors Field, he actually performed well last year. Everyone missed the fact he’s a .217 career hitter (that translates to a .300 hitter if playing every day).

So many of you wonder if Chicago is where bad pitchers turn great. The best example of this? 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta. The righty was just 27 years old when he split 2013 between Baltimore and Chicago.

Comparisons between Chatwood, Arrieta?

And, to be blunt, there’s a stark contract between his performance with the O’s and that with the Cubs. Arrieta’s best season in Baltimore: 10-8, 5.05 ERA. Arrieta’s worst season in Chicago: 14-10, 3.53 ERA.

Tyler Chatwood just turned 28, so there’s optimism left here.

Arrieta’s age 28 season (with Chicago): 10-5, 2.53 ERA which accompanied his still-career best 9.6 K/9. Kind of hard not to draw some pretty lofty assumptions about Chatwood knowing this.

Chatwood will shine, given his new pitching coach has groomed Cobb, Alex Colome and Chris Archer into great young stars. I’m guess a 13-9 clip, a mid-3.00 ERA and around a strikeout per inning.

As for Brandon Morrow, I believe his stuff is best suited for rough sixth innings or a secondary setup role behind Carl Edwards. He’ll keep his ERA below 3.00, but I think he’ll shine a bit later in the year as opposed to right off the bat.

2018 season ends with division crown, World Series appearance

I honestly don’t think we’ll need a leadoff hitter or Yu Darvish signing to eek out another Central Division crown. St. Louis lacks longevity in pitching, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are too close to rebuild mode and Milwaukee isn’t making the kind of moves synonymous with a team willing to say they’re ‘all in’.

We’ll take the division with a 93-69 record.

After whizzing by Arizona in the NLDS), I believe we meet Colorado in the NLCS where we take down Nolan Arenado & Co. in six. It’ll be a much closer series than the 4-2 win suggests, however.

Finally, I do believe the Angels have done enough this offseason to make The Dance. Going 80-82 without major upgrades was amazing; I think this allows them to crawl past Houston for their first Series appearance since 2002.

Under Scioscia’s careful tutelage, I believe they’ll take Chicago in six.

Next: Cubs blending 'win now', big picture in latest moves

Even with a series loss, the Chicago Cubs will do just enough to convince Bryce Harper to sign with them in an epic ending to a solid 2018 season.