Chicago Cubs: What to expect from Willson Contreras in 2018

Contreras builds on 2016 campaign

At age 25, Contreras got off to a slow start in 2017. Through the first two months of the season, Contreras was batting .248 with just five home runs. Despite that, Contreras had amassed a .321 OBP and .426 slugging percentage.

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By the end of June, Contreras was still batting under .250, and he had not eclipsed the ten home run mark. Once July hit, so did Contreras. In 84 at-bats, Contreras recorded 27 hits including seven home runs. In addition to that, Contreras slashed .321/.400/.619 for the month, raising his season average to .269.

During the early part of August, Contreras’ batting average continued to rise, topping out at .281. Despite that, the young back-stop was forced to miss 29 games with a hamstring injury. The injury knocked Contreras out for the majority of August and the first week of September, killing his chances of joining the 30 home run and 100 RBI club.

Even though Contreras missed time, he still played in 117 games and slugged 21 home runs. In addition to driving in 74 runs, Contreras slashed .276/.356/.499.

On the defensive side of the ball, Contreras seemed to take a step back. In 108 games behind the plate, Contreras logged 821 1/3 innings. In that time, Contreras committed 13 errors, which tied him for the most in the majors and was below average when it came to defensive runs saved.

While Contreras did have seven pickoffs in 2017, his caught stealing percentage fell to 27%, exactly league average.

Contreras looks to continue success in 2018

Last season, the majority of Contreras’ at-bats came in the clean-up spot (153). That was good news because that is a role that Contreras thrived in. He slashed .307/.404/.608 in the four-hole and slugged 13 home runs.

Because Contreras proved he could hold his own in the middle of the order, there is no reason why Joe Maddon would take him out of that spot moving forward. It’s for that reason that’s it is so vital for Contreras to continue to produce offensively. Looking at the numbers, it seems like Contreras is headed in the right direction as the 2018 season approaches.

First off, Contreras’ walk rate and strikeout rate both headed in the right directions from 2016 to 2017. His 10.5% walk rate was 1.3% better than in 2016 and Contreras’ 22.9% strikeout rate was 0.8% lower than his 2016 mark. In addition to that, Contreras’ ISO rose from .206 in 2016 to .223 in 2017.

Contreras’ fly-ball rate increased slightly in 2017 to 29.3% at the same time that his ground ball rate dropped a percentage point. Lastly, Contreras hit the ball harder in 2017 as 35.5% of his contact was classified as “hard” by Fangraphs. That number is up from 32.3% in 2016.

In summary, Contreras hit more balls in the air and harder in 2017 than he did in 2016. In addition to that, Contreras’ increase in ISO suggests that he collected more extra-base hits from year to year.

Defensively

One thing needs to happen on the defensive side of the ball for Contreras moving forward. He needs to cut down on the errors. Nineteen errors in just over 1,200 innings behind the plate puts Contreras solidly below league average in fielding percentage.

While it’s always exciting to see Contreras pick someone off first base or throw-out someone attempting to steal, his early defensive numbers do not reflect his ability and talent level.

Moving forward, there is no doubt that Contreras has the starting catcher’s job locked down. I, and the rest of Cubs’ nation would just like to see a decrease in errors in 2018.

Projections for 2018

Contreras will be entering his age 26 season in 2018. After turning in two solid partial seasons, Contreras will look to stay healthy enough to play in at least 150 games next season. With that being said, it is never too early to start looking at projections for the upcoming season.

Let’s start with fangraphs.com which has two projection models: the “steamer” and “depth charts.” These two projections differ when it comes to how many games Contreras will play in in 2018. The consensus seems to be 128 which seems a bit low to me. Nevertheless, the models suggest that Contreras will hit 20-21 home runs and drive in anywhere between 72 and 75 RBI.

Which will it be?

The two projections do agree that Contreras’ walk rate will drop to 9.6% in 2018. Also dropping in 2018, according to the projections, is Contreras’ strikeout rate, to 20.7%. The projections also agree that Contreras will slash .271/.346/.463. If that holds, those would be the lowest numbers of Contreras’ career.

There is one final projection that I like to use, the one on Baseball-reference.com. According to it, Contreras will hit 20 home runs and drive in 67 runs. He will also slash .276/.354/.491.

These projections seem to come to the same conclusion. Contreras will hit around 20 home runs and have a .270-.275 batting average. Personally, I think Contreras will blow past 20 home runs and knock on the door of 30 while easily setting a career-high in RBI.

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With Contreras under team control until 2023, the young backstop is the catcher of the future for the Cubs. That means that steps will need to continue to take place both offensively and defensively. I don’t think there is any doubt that Contreras will continue to progress, eventually turning himself into an elite player on both sides of the ball.