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Chicago Cubs: Team doesn’t need Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish to win

By Adam H. McGinnis |
CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 18: Jake Arrieta
CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 18: Jake Arrieta
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LOS ANGELES, CA – AUGUST 30: Starting pitcher Jake Arrieta #49 of the Chicago Cubsis greeted by agent Scott Boras after pitching a no hitter against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on August 30, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. The Cubs won 2-0. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA – AUGUST 30: Starting pitcher Jake Arrieta #49 of the Chicago Cubsis greeted by agent Scott Boras after pitching a no hitter against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on August 30, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. The Cubs won 2-0. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images) /

The hot stove is gradually getting warmer as the Chicago Cubs get set to head into the 2017 Baseball Winter Meetings. There’s been speculation that they will sign either Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish. But do they need either of them?

The Chicago Cubs‘ rotation wasn’t the dominant force it was in 2016. To be fair, that rotation’s performance was a bit of an anomaly. Collectively, Cubs starters went 81-39 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. They pitched nearly 1,000 innings and recorded over 900 strikeouts.

That kind of season simply cannot be expected to be duplicated. It was the ceiling. The 2017 season wasn’t as peachy for the Cubs’ rotation. They went 64-47 with a 4.05 ERA, a significant drop-off in production.

With Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish hitting the free agent market, many have speculated the Chicago Cubs will make a serious run at one of them. But do they really need either of them?

CHICAGO, IL – JULY 12: Jake Arrieta of the Chicago Cubs pitches against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning on July 12, 2015 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Players on the Chicago Cubs are wearing the number 14 to honor Ernie Banks. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL – JULY 12: Jake Arrieta of the Chicago Cubs pitches against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning on July 12, 2015 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Players on the Chicago Cubs are wearing the number 14 to honor Ernie Banks. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images) /

The hometown man

The Chicago Cubs are expected to make a pitch to get Jake Arrieta to re-sign. And Arrieta has, in the past, expressed interest in remaining with the team. But the Cubs won’t be alone in their pursuit to sign him. And the price will be steep.

There are reportedly five other teams that have expressed interest in the right-hander. One of those teams is the Milwaukee Brewers.

Arrieta had an up-and-down season in 2017. He finished the year at 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA. Those are fine numbers, to be sure. But let’s look at the big picture. Over the past three seasons, Arrieta’s ERA, WHIP and FIP have all gone up while his strikeout numbers and innings pitched have dipped.

He’ll be 32 in March, but he’s pitched less career innings than the average starter of a similar age. Arrieta has made it clear he’d like a long-term deal, but will not give the Cubs any sort of hometown discount.

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Yu Darvish an option

If no deal can be reached with Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish is the other top free agent option. Darvish spent most of the 2017 season with the Texas Rangers and was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the July deadline.

The 31-year-old pitcher from Japan had a decent season, but he has never quite returned to form since having Tommy John  Surgery in 2015. Tommy John surgery is always a reason to be weary of signing a pitcher. In many cases, pitchers who underwent the surgery never look like their former selves.

Darvish finished the season 10-12 with a 3.86 ERA. He did pitch 186 2/3 innings, so that’s a good sign as far as durability goes.

Like Arrieta, Darvish will also come with a hefty price tag.

CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 18: Manager Joe Maddon of the Chicago Cubs speaks to the media after beating the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-2 in game four of the National League Championship Series at Wrigley Field on October 18, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 18: Manager Joe Maddon of the Chicago Cubs speaks to the media after beating the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-2 in game four of the National League Championship Series at Wrigley Field on October 18, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

Do the Cubs need either pitcher?

While the Cubs would certainly like to have Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish in 2018, the truth is, they don’t actually need either one of them to stay competitive in the NL Central.

The free agent market for starting pitchers is pretty thin this year. There aren’t a lot options for multiple teams to make significant upgrades to their rotation, unless big trades are made.

Consider this: Even though the Cubs’ rotation had somewhat of a down year, they still had the lowest ERA of any team in the NL Central. The Brewers had the next lowest with a 4.10 ERA, and the Cincinnati Reds had the highest with a 5.55 ERA.

Next: Javier Baez and his free-swinging tendencies bring value

Kyle Hendricks has shown consistency and is capable of bringing ace-caliber value. It’s more than reasonable to expect Jose Quintana to turn things around in 2018. There has reportedly been mutual interest between the Cubs and starting pitcher Alex Cobb. He could help round out a solid rotation, and for a substantially cheaper price than Arrieta or Darvish. Also, keep in mind the Cubs’ supposed desire to sign Bryce Harper next year. They’ll need to save some dollars if they want to pull that off.

The bottom line is this: With or without Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish, the Cubs still have arguably the best rotation in the NL Central. And their lineup is obviously the top of the heap. They could still make a trade mid-season for a championship push, but as is, they can save a ton of money and remain at the top of their division.

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