Chicago Cubs: Team doesn’t need Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish to win

The hometown man

The Chicago Cubs are expected to make a pitch to get Jake Arrieta to re-sign. And Arrieta has, in the past, expressed interest in remaining with the team. But the Cubs won’t be alone in their pursuit to sign him. And the price will be steep.

There are reportedly five other teams that have expressed interest in the right-hander. One of those teams is the Milwaukee Brewers.

Arrieta had an up-and-down season in 2017. He finished the year at 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA. Those are fine numbers, to be sure. But let’s look at the big picture. Over the past three seasons, Arrieta’s ERA, WHIP and FIP have all gone up while his strikeout numbers and innings pitched have dipped.

He’ll be 32 in March, but he’s pitched less career innings than the average starter of a similar age. Arrieta has made it clear he’d like a long-term deal, but will not give the Cubs any sort of hometown discount.

Yu Darvish an option

If no deal can be reached with Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish is the other top free agent option. Darvish spent most of the 2017 season with the Texas Rangers and was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the July deadline.

The 31-year-old pitcher from Japan had a decent season, but he has never quite returned to form since having Tommy John  Surgery in 2015. Tommy John surgery is always a reason to be weary of signing a pitcher. In many cases, pitchers who underwent the surgery never look like their former selves.

Darvish finished the season 10-12 with a 3.86 ERA. He did pitch 186 2/3 innings, so that’s a good sign as far as durability goes.

Like Arrieta, Darvish will also come with a hefty price tag.

Do the Cubs need either pitcher?

While the Cubs would certainly like to have Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish in 2018, the truth is, they don’t actually need either one of them to stay competitive in the NL Central.

The free agent market for starting pitchers is pretty thin this year. There aren’t a lot options for multiple teams to make significant upgrades to their rotation, unless big trades are made.

Consider this: Even though the Cubs’ rotation had somewhat of a down year, they still had the lowest ERA of any team in the NL Central. The Brewers had the next lowest with a 4.10 ERA, and the Cincinnati Reds had the highest with a 5.55 ERA.

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Kyle Hendricks has shown consistency and is capable of bringing ace-caliber value. It’s more than reasonable to expect Jose Quintana to turn things around in 2018. There has reportedly been mutual interest between the Cubs and starting pitcher Alex Cobb. He could help round out a solid rotation, and for a substantially cheaper price than Arrieta or Darvish. Also, keep in mind the Cubs’ supposed desire to sign Bryce Harper next year. They’ll need to save some dollars if they want to pull that off.

The bottom line is this: With or without Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish, the Cubs still have arguably the best rotation in the NL Central. And their lineup is obviously the top of the heap. They could still make a trade mid-season for a championship push, but as is, they can save a ton of money and remain at the top of their division.