Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez and his free-swinging tendencies bring value

Since he headlined the Chicago Cubs’ top prospect rankings, infielder Javier Baez had demonstrated a proclivity for home runs – and head-scratching strikeouts.

Baseball needs more personable players. And, if you spend any time watching the Chicago Cubs, you already understand there are few in the game with as much flair and passion as Javier Baez.

Heading into his age-25 campaign, the Puerto Rican native has already made himself a household name on the North Side. From his quick tags at second base to his clutch home runs, Baez has already started to live up to the mammoth hype surrounding him. But, as is the case with most young players, there are weak spots in his still-developing game.

In the 2016 National League Championship Series, Baez took home co-MVP honors with teammate Jon Lester. The young infielder batted .318/.333/.500 with seven hits – including four doubles. He drove in five runs in the same-game set, leading the Cubs to their first pennant since 1945.

Heading to Cleveland for the World Series, everyone expected Baez to help carry the offense. Instead, he became a burden. Over the seven-game series, he struck out 13 times, putting up a .433 OPS in the Fall Classic. He struck out in 43 percent of his plate appearances and failed to draw a single base-on-balls.

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If nothing else, it became the perfect example of the double-edged sword that is Javier Baez. He can be tremendously impactful – but he can also leave a gaping hole in your lineup when he abandons his plate discipline.

Trend that continued into 2017

Baez, according to Baseball Reference, was a roughly three-win player (2.9 WAR) this past season.  He set career-highs in both home runs (23) and runs batted in (75), while also putting up a personal-best .796 OPS. For at least this piece, we’ll focus on his offensive contributions. But don’t worry, we’ll get to his defense here in the coming weeks.

In 508 plate appearances, the former first-rounder drew just 30 walks. And get this. Half of those 30 were intentional. Which, if you think about it, means he managed just 15 base-on-balls that he worked himself in over 500 trips to the plate. That’s not exactly what I’d call encouraging.

(Fun tidbit, though. His 15 intentional walks ranked second-most in the league, trailing only MVP runner-up Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds).

Swinging yourself to death

As you probably figured out for yourself, Baez digs himself a lot of holes. And when he does so, the results are not promising. Last season, he batted just .189/.188/.286 when he fell behind in the count.

In 206 such at-bats, he struck out a staggering 89 times (43 percent). On the flip side, though, when Baez worked himself into good counts, he became one of the best hitters on the Cubs’ roster, slashing .375/.524/.750. Now, I know. Any genius can deduct as much from simple logic.

Get in good counts, good results follow. But when you take into account the fact that Baez swings at so many pitches outside the zone, this trend is even more concerning than it would be with, say, someone like Jon Jay or Ben Zobrist.

In each of his first four seasons with Chicago, his O-swing percentage (percentage of pitches he swings at out of the zone) climbed. Last year, that peaked at 46.1 percent. Meanwhile on said pitches, he made contact just 52.5 percent of the time – an eight percent drop from 2016.

Simply put, he’s swinging more and more at balls outside the zone. And he’s making contact with those pitches roughly half the time – and when he does, it’s not for hard contact, either.

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A change in philosophy

Chili Davis brings a different approach to hitting than former hitting coach John Mallee. Focused more on situational hitting, we hope Davis brings a more contact-based approach to hitting to the North Side. Perhaps more than any other player, Javier Baez stands to benefit.

There’s no doubt he brings tremendous talent and power to the plate on a daily basis. But as we saw at various points through the season – and during the 2016 World Series – there are rough patches, as well. For the Cubs to take the next step and return to the top of the National League, Baez will have to learn to control his plate discipline.