Chicago Cubs: Is Tyler Chatwood an option for 2018?

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With the Chicago Cubs not likely to shell out big bucks to a free agent pitcher this winter, could Tyler Chatwood be a possible rotation option for 2018?

There is no doubt Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta are the two best starting pitchers on the market this winter. However, the likelihood of either one of them signing with the Cubs is almost zero. The reason for that is because of the money it would take to get either one of them to sign.

It’s hard telling which one will come out on top money-wise. However, each pitcher could earn $150 million-plus over the next six or seven years. That is out of the Cubs’ price range right now as they have to start thinking about retaining the horde of talented position players currently on the team.

With Darvish and Arrieta seemly out of the picture, the Cubs will need to get creative this off-season. The Cubs have aleady been linked to free agent pitcher Alex Cobb. Cobb, if signed, would likely fill out the Cubs’ number four spot in the rotation behind Jose Quintana.

Even though Cobb and the Cubs seem like a good fit, nothing is a given in baseball which is why the Cubs are likely exploring every possible option for their 2018 rotation.

One option that the Cubs have moving forward is 27-year-old Tyler Chatwood.

Up-and-down career

Chatwood broke into the majors in 2011 at the age of 21 with the Los Angeles Angels. In 27 games (25 starts), Chatwood went 6-11 with a 4.75 ERA. Along with that, the right-hander struck out just 74 batters in 142 innings pitched.

Following a rocky rookie campaign, Chatwood was traded to the Colorado Rockies. As a member of the 2012 Rockies, Chatwood appeared in just 19 games (12 starts), and logged just 64 2/3 innings pitched. In that time, Chatwood went 5-6 with a lofty 5.43 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP.

Despite having a horrid 2012 season, Chatwood rebounded nicely the following year. In 2013, Chatwood posted a career-best 3.15 ERA and eight wins in 20 starts for Colorado. The 23-year-old Chatwood also struck out 66 batters and walked 41 in 111 1/3 innings pitched. Even though he posted only a 1.61 strikeout-to-walk ratio, Chatwood logged a 142 ERA+ in 2013, the best mark of his career.

Injury plagued seasons

After starting just four games in 2014, Chatwood went down with an injury that would eventually require Tommy John surgery. The surgery kept Chatwood off a major league mound for the entirety of the 2015 season.

Chatwood makes a strong comeback

In Chatwood’s first season back from elbow surgery, he put up solid numbers. At the age of 26, Chatwood won 12 games, pitching to a 3.87 ERA in 158 innings. Despite a solid ERA, Chatwood’s strike out rate remained right around his career average of 1.46 (1.67 in 2016).

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While Chatwood’s first season back from injury was promising, the right-hander’s 2017 season did not impress many people. In 33 games (25 starts), Chatwood went 8-15 with a 4.69 ERA in 147 2/3 innings pitched. Part of his struggles could be traced back to the long-ball. In 2017, Chatwood issued 20 home runs, setting a career-high. Speaking of career-highs, Chatwood struck out 120 batters in 2017, a best but he also walked 77, a more forgettable mark.

What does Chatwood bring to the table?

Chatwood utilizes a five-pitch mix of a fourseam fastball, sinker, change-up, slider and curve-ball. After using his sinker the majority of the time from 2011-2014, Chatwood decreased the amount of time he threw the pitch in 2016 and 2017. Now, Chatwood mixes his fourseamer and sinker, throwing each pitch around 30-35 percent of the time.

Despite almost scrapping his curve-ball in 2014 and 2016, Chatwood more than doubled his usage of the pitch in 2017, throwing the bender almost 11 percent of the time. Following Tommy John Surgery, Chatwood upped the usage of his slider. In his shortened season of 2014, Chatwood used the pitch 12 percent of the time. After surgery, Chatwood increased that percentage to 19.8 percent in 2016 and again to 20.8 percent in 2017.

Chatwood rarely uses his change-up, throwing it only three percent of the time in 2016 and only 4.6 percent of the time in 2017.

The young right-hander has a live arm that is capable of throwing his fourseamer 95-plus MPH. Chatwood’s sinker is not far off that pace, averaging 94.8 MPH during the 2017 season. In 2017, Chatwood’s change-up velocity rose to 88.2 MPH, more than three MPH higher than in 2016. That same story is true for Chatwood’s slider and curve-ball as they have both risen in velocity more than two MPH from 2016 to 2017.

The Cubs could benefit from signing Chatwood

Tyler Chatwood has spent six years in the major leagues making a living on contact outs. According to Fangraphs, more than 58 percent of the batted balls given up by Chatwood during the 2017 season were hit on the ground. Couple that with Chatwood’s low strikeout numbers, and it’s easy to see that the 27-year-old needs to sign with a team that has a good defense. There are not many teams that have a better infield defense than the Cubs, so ground balls given up by Chatwood would not be a problem.

I know Chatwood’s numbers may look bad on the surface, but if you do some digging, there may be hope for the right-hander. For example, Chatwood has a 5.25 career home ERA and a 3.31 road ERA. Of course, much of Chatwood’s career has been spent as a member of the Rockies, so that is not very surprising.

The Cubs should pursue Chatwood

Another thing to take into account is how well Chatwood has fared at Wrigley Field. The righty has made two career starts against the Cubs at Wrigley. In those two starts, which came in 2016 and 2017, Chatwood posted a 0.69 ERA and recorded 11 strikeouts and three walks in 13 innings pitched.

Taking all of these things into account, it would not be crazy to consider Chatwood as a possible free agent addition this winter. He would likely cost the Cubs less than $10 million to sign and would not bog down the books if things go wrong.

Next: Chicago Cubs: Expectations for Jose Quintana in 2018

Overall, Chatwood would provide the Cubs with a solid arm in the five spot of the rotation if the Cubs decide to pursue him this off-season.

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Chicago Cubs: Is Tyler Chatwood a rotation option for 2018?