Chicago Cubs: Expectations for Jose Quintana in 2018

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MILWAUKEE, WI – SEPTEMBER 24: Jose Quintana /

The Chicago Cubs swung a block-buster trade with the White Sox at the trade deadline for Jose Quintana. What can the Cubs expect from the southpaw in 2018?

This past summer, Theo Epstein and the Chicago Cubs’ front office dealt two top prospects, Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease, to the White Sox in exchange for Jose Quintana. Quintana joined a Cubs’ staff that had struggled during the first half of the 2017 season.

Collectively, the North Siders’ pitching had a 4.10 ERA, .489 winning percentage and had allowed 105 home runs at the All-Star break. Less than one week after being acquired by the Cubs, Quintana made his first start, on the road against the Orioles. Quintana fired 100 pitches over seven innings of shut-out baseball. In addition to not allowing a run, Quintana struck out 12 Baltimore batters and did not issue a walk.

That dominant performance by Quintana helped the Cubs win their third straight game and extended what would become a six-game win streak following the All-Star break.

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Following his dominant outing, Quintana would go on to post a 5.73 ERA in the month of August, allowing 33 hits in as many innings. Despite his rough month, Quintana seemed to settle down in September, posting a 2.51 ERA with 36 strikeouts and just four walks in five starts.

Quintana’s up-and-down few months as a Cub left many Cubs fans wondering which pitcher will show-up in 2018. Will the dominant Quintana challenge for a Cy Young award in 2018 or will the August Quintana show-up and end up relegated to the back-end of the rotation? My guess is someone in between will hold down the number three spot in the Cubs’ rotation in 2018. But how well will Quintana pitch next season?

Let’s take our best shot at answering that question.

CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 19: Jose Quintana /

Consistency is key

Quintana broke into the majors in 2012 at the age of 23. In 25 appearances (22 starts), Quintana logged a 3.76 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 136 1/3 innings pitched. Over the next four seasons (2013-2016), Quintana started 129 games for the White Sox. In those starts, the lefty went 40-40 with a 3.35 ERA. Along with that, Quintana averaged 7.7 strikeouts per game during that same span and logged an ERA+ of 119.

While an ERA in the low three’s over a stretch of 814 2/3 innings is impressive, so is Quintana’s durability. In four of the six seasons Quintana has been in the majors, he has recorded at least 200 innings pitched, reaching a career-high with 208 innings in 2016. Quintana just missed the 200 inning threshold in 2017, logging 188 2/3 between cross-town rivals. While he failed to reach that lofty plateau, Quintana extended his streak of 30-plus starts in a season with 32 in 2017.

2017 was promising for Quintana

Even though Quintana set a career-high with a 4.15 ERA in 2017, there were some positive signs for the 28-year-old. With a strikeout-per-nine-innings rate of 9.87 and a strikeout percentage of 26.2% last season, Quintana set career bests. However, Quintana had the highest walk rate of his career at 7.7%.

Despite an increased amount of walks, Quintana was able to increase ground-ball percentage from 40.4% in 2016 to 44.8% in 2017. In addition to that, Quintana dropped his fly-ball rate more than four percentage points during the 2017 campaign. What that means is that Quintana found a way to keep the ball on the ground rather than allowing fly-balls that could result in home runs.

LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 14: Jose Quintana /

What will Quintana bring to the Cubs in 2018?

When the Cubs traded for Quintana, they did not expect him to become the ace of the staff. Instead, the idea was that Quintana would provide the Cubs with a solid middle of the rotation starter that would be around for at least two years following 2017.

Going into the 2018 season, Quintana projects to be the Cubs number three starter (barring a free agent signing or trade this winter). For that reason, it would be foolish to expect a Cy Young worthy season from Quintana. Would that be nice, yes, but a solid season from Quintana seems to be more likely.

According to Baseball-Reference, Quintana will win ten games in 2018. That would mark only the third time in Quintana’s career that he would reach that milestone. In addition to ten wins, the projection suggests that Quintana will record a 3.86 ERA in 175 innings pitched. While the ERA seems to be in-line with Quintana’s 3.53 career ERA, 175 innings pitched seems to be a little low.

Quintana has made 32 starts in each of the past four seasons. That means if he only logs 175 innings in 2018 and makes the same amount of starts, Quintana would only average about 5.5 innings per start.

Baseball-Reference also suggests that Quintana will record 8.8 strikeouts per game and 2.7 walks. Those marks would be higher than his career averages, but lower than the numbers he posted in 2017.

CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 09: Jose Quintana /

Fangraphs projection

Fangraphs paints a better picture for Quintana in 2018. According to their projections, Quintana will win 15 games, a career high, and log a 3.45 ERA. In addition to that, the projections state that Quintana will throw between 196 and 199 innings and average 9.18 strikeouts per game.

Along with that, the projections show Quintana’s ground-ball rate will continue to climb in 2018, reaching 46.2% according to the Steamer.

An average of the two would work just fine

Perhaps, by averaging the two projections we could get a better look into Quintana’s production in 2018. If the two projections were averaged, they would suggest that Quintana would be a 12-13 win pitcher next season with a 3.66 ERA and average right at nine strikeouts per game.

I don’t know about you, but for a pitcher that is slated to be the number three man in the rotation, those are pretty good numbers.

Next: Chicago Cubs: Epstein confident in what team accomplished at GM meetings

After digging through Quintana’s numbers, it has become clear that as long as the left-hander is healthy, he is a solid major league starting pitcher. Is he good enough to give up two top prospects for? That remains to be seen. However, the Cubs have two years of team control on Quintana with a possible third. That means Quintana has at least two full seasons to earn his keep on the North Side. My guess is that he will do just fine.

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