Chicago Cubs chances of bring back Jake Arrieta dwindling

The Chicago Cubs will undoubtedly be big players in the starting pitcher market this winter. But recent decisions around the league may have hampered their chances of retaining Jake Arrieta.

Since joining the Chicago Cubs, right-hander Jake Arrieta went from a subpar fringe arm with great potential to one of the best pitchers in the National League. He won the 2015 NL Cy Young Award thanks to a historic second-half and played an integral role in the team’s three-straight League Championship Series appearances.

For me personally, there are few Cubs players I appreciate and respect more than Arrieta. When the Los Angeles Dodgers handed Chicago an exit from the postseason, I was 100 percent onboard the ‘bring back Jake Arrieta’ train. I didn’t care what it cost – I wanted him back.

To a degree, I’m still aboard that train. But the decisions of several notable starting pitchers around the league in recent days may push Arrieta’s asking price to a level that could prove foolhardy for the Cubs to meet.

Here’s a look at those decisions and what the market looks like heading into the offseason.

Chicago Cubs: Other starters impacting the market in big ways

In the last week alone, Masahiro Tanaka, Johnny Cueto and Wei-Yin Chen all opted into the remaining years on their current contracts. These decisions took three potential free agent arms off the open market – thus driving up the demand for those left. This rings especially true for high-level arms like Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta

Per usual, Evan Altman over at Cubs Insider put together a really nice piece on this whole concept over the weekend. He summed up these recent moves, offering up these thoughts: (the entire pieces is worth your time)

What this means is that Jake Arrieta is going to look that much more desirable to the teams in need of starting pitching. He was already in line for more than what seems like a laughably low prediction of $100 million over four seasons, but the utter lack of top-flight starters outside of Arrieta and Yu Darvish means that we’ll likely see even that much more separation at the top of the market.

A notable talent gap

In short, the free agent market for starting pitching looks like this: Arrieta and Darvish, a big gap, and then everyone else testing the waters of free agency.

MLBTR predicted four years and $100 million for Arrieta, which, to pretty much everyone who knows what the right-hander brings to the table, is laughable. Now that three other quality starting pitchers (I use that term lightly with Chen), his price is sure to blow past that mark with whomever he signs.

Chicago Cubs have questions – and Theo will again have answers

The good news? No one really listens to me. At least not in the Cubs front office. And, at this point, I don’t envy the job ahead of Theo and Jed. They have to balance the ever-climbing expectations in and around the organization with fiscal responsibility and putting a quality product on the field.

In my lifetime, I’ve never had as much faith in a front office than I do with this one. If there’s an opportunity to bring Jake Arrieta back – I know this group will do their due diligence. But, more importantly, I trust them to not overextend and push the team into a long-term unsavory position.

The flashy names like Arrieta or Darvish always look enticing. But, as the Cubs saw two years ago, what you expect to get from a big-time free agent, doesn’t always pan out. Chicago brought in Jason Heyward on a record contract. He then essentially quit producing at the plate.

Next: If Wade walks, Cubs should consider these trade options

These risks are present with all players – and with contracts pushing higher and higher in terms of value each year, balancing the now with the future is more important than ever before.