Chicago Cubs bullpen will decide NLCS showdown with the Dodgers

The Chicago Cubs advanced to a third-straight NLCS, which opens Saturday in Los Angeles. But, without a stronger bullpen performance, this team is doomed.

The starting rotation of the Chicago Cubs answered the call time and time again during the National League Division Series. The only exception? Kyle Hendricks struggled in Game 5 – but the team pulled off an incredible win nonetheless.

As a whole, the rotation put up stellar numbers in the five games against Washington. Chicago starters ranked first among the 10 teams to play a postseason game this year with a 1.69 earned run average. They pitched more innings than all but one team’s rotation – the Nationals. And, last, but certainly not least, the Cubs ranked second in opponent batting average (.172) – again trailing Washington.

That hardly means Joe Maddon‘s club is set heading into a Game 1 showdown with Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. Between Games 4 and 5, Chicago used Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana to advance to the next round.

Still, it’s widely expected that Quintana will get the ball against Kershaw in Game 1 given he threw only 12 pitches in Game 5 out of the pen. But that’s a story for another time.

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The  biggest issue with the reigning World Series champs? It’s not the offense – although there certainly are problems in the lineup. It’s what happens when a Cubs starter gives way to the bullpen.

Cubs relievers were downright awful in the NLDS. Of course, we all remember how Wade Davis went above-and-beyond, recording seven outs in Game 5. But he also surrendered a grand slam in the eighth inning of Game 4 at Wrigley to Michael A. Taylor, as well – you can’t forget that fact.

Best reliever is … a starter?

The best relief performance of the series came in Game 4 when Jon Lester came out of the pen and dominated. The veteran southpaw turned in 3 2/3 innings of one-run ball – with that run scoring when Davis surrendered the slam to Taylor. He departed in the seventh with a man on first and two outs – but things unraveled for Chicago in that inning much the same as they did for the Nationals in the fifth inning of Game 5.

Apart from Lester, the bullpen includes a lot of question marks. As a whole, Cubs relievers posted a 6.75 ERA, walking 13 and allowing 13 earned runs in their 17 innings of work. Of the men in the pen, only John Lackey did not pitch in the series.

Mike Montgomery struggled badly in Game 5 – allowing a run on two hits and tow walks in just one-third of an inning. Carl Edwards Jr. continued his roller coaster performance – and has walked four and allowed six earned in two innings.

What it comes down to is simple: Chicago must cut down on the free passes. The team’s defensive miscues certainly don’t help matters – they’ve been the worst-fielding team in the postseason to-date.

Next: Looking back at Hendricks' postseason starts for Chicago

There’s hope

Brian Duensing has pitched effectively thus far for Maddon – as has Pedro Strop. While Davis surrendered the grand slam – without his seven-out save, the Cubs probably don’t advance past the first-round.

Left-hander Justin Wilson – one of two available pitchers who did not take the mound in Game 5 – has two-thirds of an inning under his belt. But, given his performance after joining Chicago at the deadline, it’s clear his manager does not trust him in high-leverage situations.

If Edwards gets his head on right and the other relievers start finding the zone, the Cubs have a chance at making it to a second-straight Fall Classic. But if you put up the kind of performance we saw against the Nationals, you can kiss those hopes goodbye.