Chicago Cubs: Weekend showdown with Milwaukee will decide Central

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MILWAUKEE, WI – JULY 30: Zach Davies #27 of the Milwaukee Brewers throws a pitch during the sixth inning of a game against the Chicago Cubs at Miller Park on July 30, 2017 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

The Chicago Cubs open a four-game set this weekend against the Milwaukee Brewers, looking to put the finishing touches on another NL Central championship.

Time and time again, I’ve said this. Calling anything a ‘must-win’ series is out of character for me, personally. But it’s hard to call this weekend’s Chicago Cubs-Milwaukee Brewers series anything other than a must-win. At the very least, it’s a must-split.

Two weekends ago, the Brewers lined up their rotation heading into a series at Wrigley. And they capitalized, sweeping all three games of the weekend set. That sweep breathed life into their division aspirations and dealt a serious blow to the Cubs.

Since then, Chicago ran off a seven-game winning streak – but Milwaukee hung right in with them. As the Cubs dropped Wednesday’s finale to Tampa Bay, the Brewers finally stuttered, falling to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Once again, the Brewers’ rotation lines up for the showdown with the reigning World Series champions. Chicago, meanwhile, gets Jake Arrieta back for the opener of what is certainly the most highly-anticipated Cubs-Brewers series in years.

CLEVELAND, OH – OCTOBER 26: Jake Arrieta #49 of the Chicago Cubs looks on prior to Game Two of the 2016 World Series against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on October 26, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Jake Arrieta makes his return to the mound

On September 4, Arrieta left his start against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Ever since dominating the Bucs in the National League Wild Card game in 2015, the right-hander seemed to always turn in good outings against Pittsburgh.

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But, this time around, he failed to make it through the third. He allowed three earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings of work before leaving with a hamstring injury. At first labeled cramping, the injury proved more serious and cost him two-plus weeks of September.

Prior to his injury, Arrieta was masterful. In the month of July, he pitched to a 2.25 ERA in five starts. He followed that up with a 1.21 earned run average in August, netting him NL Pitcher of the Month honors.

So, naturally, injury strikes. By contrast, Jon Lester returned from injury – and has not been the same guy. More than anything, he has struggled with locating pitches effectively. In the heat of a division race, the Cubs need their starting arms locked and loaded to put this thing away.

Working on a limited pitch count, Jake Arrieta won’t go the distance on Thursday. But if he can limit the Brewers’ offense and give the bats a chance, the Chicago Cubs could end their losing streak against Milwaukee in a big way.

CHICAGO, IL – AUGUST 30: Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs (L) smiles after scoring on a two run home run by Ian Happ #8 (R) against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the third inning at Wrigley Field on August 30, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Offense will make or break this team

Over the last seven games (entering Wednesday night), the Cubs featured seven players batting at least .260. The lowest man on that list? Kyle Schwarber, who belted a mammoth shot in the opener against Tampa Bay. The rookie has made adjustments at the dish of-late, namely choking up in at-bats. (Hmm. Now where have we seen this before? Cough, Anthony Rizzo.)

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Of course, Albert Almora tops that chart after a torrid stretch where he drove in runs on a near-daily basis. Jason Heyward (.385), Willson Contreras (.375) and Rizzo (.300) are all swinging hot bats right now, as well.

Last weekend against St. Louis, the clutch at-bats turned in by the offense led this club to a much-needed sweep. Heyward, of course, delivered the biggest of them all in Sunday’s finale, once again coming up in a big moment.

But, in games like Wednesday’s lopsided loss to Tampa Bay, we see the other side of this team. The games where the Cubs seemingly cannot string together hits to save their lives. It has been feast-or-famine for what seems like months now.

The best part about losing the finale to the Rays? There’s no streak to play for this weekend. It’s all about each individual game. Just like Joe Maddon talked about in the World Series last year. Win one game. Then win the next. Easier said than done, sure. But that’s really what it comes down to.

MILWAUKEE, WI – SEPTEMBER 16: Travis Shaw #21 of the Milwaukee Brewers bats during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Miller Park on September 16, 2017 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Marlins defeated the Brewers 7-4. (Photo by John Konstantaras/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Is a battle of the bats in order?

Over the last week, the Brewers’ bats have been as hot as their pitching – which is really saying something.

Ryan Braun is pushing .400 with a pair of homers and two doubles during that stretch. Young shortstop Orlando Arcia is also swinging a hot bat, batting .375 over his last 16 at-bats. Domingo Santana has three homers and eight RBI in his last five games. In other words, the Brewers’ offense is ready to go toe-to-toe with the Cubs.

Since the All-Star Break, Milwaukee owns the sixth-highest team OPS in the National League. Meanwhile, the Cubs rank fourth. The team also ranks third in on-base percentage, trailing only the league-leading Mets (go figure) and the Cubs.

Travis Shaw’s introduction into the Brewers’ lineup completely changes what this club is capable of, offensively. He’s rapidly approaching the 100-RBI mark on the season. Added into an order that features some top-tier talent (see above), it’s not hard to understand how the club made the Central interesting in 2017.

The bats are a critical part of this series – obviously. But in the end, it’s going to come down to pitching.

MILWAUKEE, WI – JULY 29: Josh Hader #71 of the Milwaukee Brewers throws a pitch during the fourth inning of a game against the Chicago Cubs at Miller Park on July 29, 2017 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Brewers’ young arms proving a tall task

This season, Milwaukee starters have limited opponents to a .260 average – the sixth-lowest mark in the league. The staff also owns the fifth-best earned run average among National League rotations.

In Thursday’s opener, the Cubs face 17-game winner Zach Davies. He’s faced Chicago three this season, pitching well each time out. On July 6, he picked up the win, tossing six innings of two-run ball at Wrigley. His last time, during the Brewers’ three-game sweep of the Cubs in early September, he turned in seven innings of one-run ball.

Brandon Woodruff, who will make just his seventh start of the season, toes the slab Friday. He has never faced Chicago in his career, but he’s been effective since taking over a spot in the rotation. Milwaukee rounds out the series with left-hander Brent Suter Saturday and Chase Anderson in the finale.

Anderson owns a minuscule 2.74 ERA this year for the Brewers in 23 games. He’s been a mixed bag against Chicago this season, but in early September, he turned in five shutout frames on the road.

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The simple story is this: Milwaukee has all the talent in the world in this rotation. It’s up to the Cubs to learn from their mistakes two weeks ago and make the necessary adjustments.

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