Chicago Cubs could have their hands full in matchup against Washington Nationals

Making the playoffs still is not a guarantee for the Chicago Cubs. Be that as it may, the most-likely matchup would be against the Washington Nationals. How do the two teams stack up entering a possible NLDS series?

At this point, there is still no definitive answer regarding where the Chicago Cubs will finish in the standings by regular season’s end. The Cubs (75-62) entered play Tuesday night with a 3 1/2 game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers (72-66) in the NL Central.

The Cubs and Brewers still have seven games left against one another, meaning there is plenty of things that can happen. If the Cubs can build upon their 17-12 August record, they should be sitting pretty come October.

At the same time, though, the seven games left against the Brewers could ultimately decide where both teams finish. Both the NL Central crown and one (if not both) wild card positions could go down to the wire.

Entering Tuesday, the Cubs have a 96 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney. The Cubs have 25 games left to solidify themselves at the top of NL Central; with a favorable schedule, the division really is the Cubs to lose.

Between winning the division and the wild card, let’s assume the Cubs make the playoffs one way or another. With how many teams are still in contention, the Cubs could play one of several teams to open October.

Washington Nationals most likely playoff opponent

As things currently stand, the Cubs’ most-likely first round opponent will be the Washington Nationals in the NLDS. Both clubs are atop their divisional standings, though the Nationals will clinch the NL East fairly soon.

Entering Tuesday, the Nationals were 83-54, leading the second place Miami Marlins by 16.0 games. Their magic number to clinch the East is just six; a magic number is how many wins a first place club needs to clinch combined with potential losses by a second place club.

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Each Nationals win (or Marlins loss) erases one off of their magic number total. For the sake of comparison, the Cubs magic number to win the NL Central is 22. Basically, the Cubs have plenty of work left to do. On the other hand, clinching the division is a matter of when, not if, for the Nationals.

This season, the Cubs went 3-4 against the Nationals, splitting a four-game series in Washington, D.C. at the end of June and losing two-out-of three in Chicago in early August. The Nationals outscored the Cubs 39-28 combined between the seven matchups.

There is no sugarcoating the fact that the Nationals would be a tough first-round opponent for the Cubs. Not only did the they win the season-series over the Cubs, but their offense did so in dominant fashion. In three of their four wins over the Cubs, they won by five, four and five runs, respectively.

No shortage of offense on either side

Both teams have prolific offenses; the Nationals are second in the MLB in runs scored (762), while the Cubs are sixth (692). The Cubs are first in runs (293) in the second half, though, while the Nationals are fifteenth with 230.

What makes the Nationals offense extremely dangerous is their dominant middle-of-the-order. Bryce Harper (.326-29-87), Ryan Zimmerman (.302-30-91), Daniel Murphy (.318-21-87) and Anthony Rendon (.304-23-90) are as dangerous of a stretch in any MLB lineup.

There is no arguing how good the Nationals are offensively, just as there is no arguing how good the Cubs are. The Cubs set a franchise record this season with six players hitting 20 home runs or more. Having such a powerful lineup that can change a game with one swing of the bat should not go unnoticed.

Star players injured ahead of October

What might ultimately help the Cubs is the fact that Harper is injured. The star outfielder has been out since mid-August after hurting his knee stepping on a wet first-base bag during a game against the San Francisco Giants. Unfortunately for the Nationals, Harper’s return might come later rather than sooner.

At the same time, the Cubs are currently without starting shortstop Addison Russell and starting catcher Willson Contreras. Both should return in time for a potential postseason run, though. Contreras is ready to to begin a rehab assignment, and although Russell re-aggravated an injury on his own rehab assignment, a return to the Cubs at the end of September seems likely.

The Nationals are a fantastic team, but they surely would miss Harper’s superstar abilities if he is unable to play for any stretch of time in the playoffs. This is not to say that the Cubs would have an advantage over the Nationals in a potential playoff series. However, it is to say that the Nationals would be without their best player when it matters most.

Nationals starting rotation a true difference-maker

With or without Harper, the Nationals still have one of the best starting rotations in the MLB. Their rotation ERA of 3.46 trails only the Los Angeles Dodgers, while the Cubs rank eleventh with a 4.19 ERA.

Max Scherzer (13-5, 2.19 ERA), Stephen Strasburg (11-4, 2.90 ERA) and Gio Gonzalez (13-6, 2.58 ERA) spearhead a dominant Nationals rotation. While all three have tremendous records and ERAs, their win totals are quite low for how many starts they have made.

Scherzer, Strasburg and Gonzalez have started 26, 23 and 27 games, respectively, this season. Between their dominant numbers and how many starts they have made, one would assume they would each have a few more wins.

When at their best, the Cubs starting rotation is equally as good as the Nationals. Between Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and José Quintana, the Cubs have four strong starters at their disposal. And while John Lackey has struggled at times this season, he has pitched much better in the second half.