Chicago Cubs: Chris Archer should be an off-season target

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CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 30: Chicago Cubs hats for sale sit on display outside Wrigley Field before Game Five of the 2016 World Series between the Chicago Cubs and the Cleveland Indians at Wrigley Field on October 30, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

Even after acquiring Jose Quintana, the Chicago Cubs should go after another young starter this winter.

After flirting around the .500 mark for much of the season, the Chicago Cubs have finally found their groove.

The North Siders have won five out of their last six games and currently own a record of 68-58. This little run the Cubs are on has pushed their lead in the NL Central to three games and increased their chances for a return visit to the postseason.

Even with this recent success, many Cubs fans are starting to look ahead to the offseason. The reason for this is at the end of the 2017 season, both John Lackey and Jake Arrieta will likely leave in free agency.

Lackey, 38, seems to be at the end of his career while Arrieta will be seeking a large contract that the Cubs will be unwilling to pay. For this reason, the Cubs have some holes in their starting rotation that will need to be filled.

Because of those holes, the Cubs will likely be very active in the starting pitching market this offseason.

Chris Archer makes a lot of sense

Trading for Chris Archer would continue the trend of acquiring young, cost-controlled starting pitching.

Archer will be entering his age 29 season in 2018, but is controlled through 2019 with team options covering the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Even though that would take Archer well into his 30’s, his body of work has been impressive.

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Looking at Archer’s numbers, the first thing that jumps of the page is his durability. From 2014-2016, Archer made 99 starts and recorded 608 innings pitched. This season, Archer has already made 27 starts and logged 172 1/3 innings.

From 2014-2015, Archer was one of the best pitchers in the American League. In that time span, Archer went 22-22 with a 3.28 ERA. Along with that, Archer recorded 425 strikeouts in 406 2/3 innings pitched and logged an ERA+ of 116.

The last two years have not been kind to Archer

After finishing fifth in the Cy Young voting in 2015, Archer’s numbers took a turn for the worse in 2016. The right-hander went 9-19 with a 4.02 ERA in 201 1/3 innings pitched. Despite his inflated ERA, Archer struck out 233 batters, averaging 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

Following his rough 2016 campaign, Archer has rebounded somewhat. In 27 starts this season, Archer has nine wins and a 3.76 ERA. Archer’s 217 strikeouts in 172 1/3 innings means he is averaging 11.3 punch-outs per game; the highest mark of his career.

What is troubling is the fact Archer has allowed 8.2 hits per game in 2017, tying a career-high. In addition to that, Archer yielded 21 home runs; the second-most in a season in his career.

Despite Archer’s struggles, it will still take a haul to land the talented right-hander.

Chicago will have to part with some top talent to get Archer

If the Cubs do decide to pursue Chris Archer and the Rays are willing to trade him, it will take some serious talent from the Cubs to land him. With a farm system thinned following the trades of Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez and Jeimer Candelario, the Cubs would no doubt have to part with some big league talent.

Of course, the first name Cubs fans think about when that is mentioned is Kyle Schwarber. While Schwarber has just 172 games under his belt, he is slashing .218/.331/.455 in those games. In addition to that, Schwarber has struck out 200 times in 573 at-bats.

Even with Schwarber’s struggles, he has the ability to become a 30 home run and 100-RBI guy year-in and year-out. Also, if this trade was made, it would mean Schwarber would be playing in the American League were the DH is employed.

CHICAGO, IL – JULY 27: Kyle Schwarber (C) of the Chicago Cubs is greeted by his teammates after hitting a two-run homer against the Chicago White Sox during the fourth inning on July 27, 2017 at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images) /

Does Schwarber fit with the Rays?

As a DH, Schwarber could split time with Corey Dickerson. The Rays have employed 15 different designated hitters this season, but Dickerson is by far their best option. Currently, Dickerson is slashing .324/.356/.595 in 50 games as the DH.

Dickerson bats left-handed, but he actually has better numbers this season against left-handed pitchers. Dickerson is slashing .313/.350/.489 against lefties compared to .276/.326/.501 against right-handers.

Schwarber’s splits are just the opposite as the 24-year-old’s batting average is 39 points higher against right-handers than it is against left-handers this season.

Maybe as a left-fielder?

When Schwarber is in the Cubs’ lineup, he plays left field. This season, the Rays have used seven different left fielders. As a group, those seven are slashing .267/.318/.457 with 21 home runs and 53 RBI. While their batting average is higher, Schwarber’s OBP currently sits at .312. In addition to that, Schwarber has clubbed 21 home runs this season, tying the production from the Rays’ left fielders.

On the defensive side of things, Schwarber falls in line with the production of the Rays’ outfielders. Corey Dickerson, who has logged the most innings in left field this season, owns a -0.7 DWAR and a zone rating of 10.87.

In fact, the seven players who have played left-field for the Rays this season have an average zone rating of 11.54. Currently, Schwarber has a zone rating of 15.33 in 2017 and a 16.42 mark for his career. In addition to that, Schwarber’s DWAR currently sits at -0.8, which is not a major difference from what the Rays are getting right now.

CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 22: Kyle Schwarber /

What is the likelihood of this trade?

Right now, the likelihood of this trade may not be that high. With Schwarber struggling, many teams may not want to trade for him. Also, let’s remember Chris Archer has been pretty good in his career and the Rays may not want to let go of him.

Archer’s availability this winter depends on whether or not the Rays feel like they can contend in 2018. In the stacked AL East, it would be hard for the Rays to put up a fight, increasing the chance of Archer being dealt.

Still, if Schwarber continues to struggle it may take an entirely different package to acquire Archer. That package would likely be headlined by Ian Happ, but I get the feeling the Cubs would like to hang on to Happ.

In the end, there are a lot of variables that would have to fall into place in order for the Cubs to land Archer this winter. First, Schwarber would need to get hot, increasing his trade value. Secondly, the Rays would need to believe they are firmly out of contention before they trade their ace. Lastly, the Rays would need to feel like Schwarber fills a hole in their line-up, something that he would not currently do.

Let’s say the Cubs land Archer this offseason. That would mean their 2018 starting rotation would look like this: Jon Lester, Chris Archer, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana and Mike Montgomery/Eddie Butler/a free agent pick-up. That is a scary four-headed monster capable of leading the Cubs to multiple World Series Championships.

Next: Chicago Cubs: Is Kris Bryant “struggling” this season?

Even if the Cubs do not land Archer, expect the North Siders to be very active in the starting pitching market this off-season.

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