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Chicago Cubs: Offensive inconsistency a major concern for reigning champs
Too many times, the Chicago Cubs offense followed an offensive outburst with a dud this season, leading to concerns over the team’s lack of consistency.
In 2016, the Chicago Cubs owned one of the best offenses in baseball. As a group, the Cubs ranked second in on-base percentage (OBP), tenth in slugging percentage, third in OPS and third in runs scored.
Aiding the Cubs’ efforts in 2016 was the MVP-caliber play of Kris Bryant. The young corner infielder slashed .292/.385/.554 with 39 home runs and 102 RBI. In addition to Bryant, Anthony Rizzo played a big part in Chicago’s offensive success. Similar to Bryant, Rizzo slashed .292/.385/.544 with 32 home runs and 109 RBI.
Behind the strong play of the duo many refer to as “Bryzzo,” the Cubs offense posted a plus 252 run differential and helped carry the team to the World Series.
The offense has fallen flat in 2017
Despite their magical run in 2016, the Cubs’ offense has yet to click. Currenty, the North Siders rank 11th in OBP, 11th in slugging percentage, ninth in OPS and 16th in runs scored.
It’s clear to see the Cubs offense is not performing as well as it did last season. One culprit for this problem has been the decline in performance from key players. For example, Rizzo is slashing .258/.381/.496 with 26 home runs and 71 RBI. While Rizzo is on pace to eclipse 30 home runs again this season, his slugging percentage has dropped almost 50 points from last season.
Ben Zobrist‘s decline this year has been more noticeable than Rizzo’s. Zobrist is slashing .221/.311/.356 a year after posting a slash line of .272/.386/.446 and winning World Series MVP.
Inconsistent play after blow-outs has killed momentum
As stated above, the Cubs enjoyed a plus 252 run differential last season. That was by far the best in baseball, but this season has been a different story. Currently, the Cubs own a plus 42 run differential. That means the Cardinals, who trail the Cubs by one game in the division, have a better run differential.
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One of the reasons for the Cubs’ small run differential this season is their inability to score runs following a blow-out. A prime example of this occurred on May 21 and May 22. After scoring 13 runs and hitting .400 as a team against the Brewers, the Cubs were held to just four runs the following game by the Giants.
Even though the Cubs would go on to win the next three games against San Francisco, they would drop their next six, scoring just nine runs in the process.
This is not the only example of this problem. On June 22, the Cubs rattled off 11 runs against the Marlins, winning by ten. The next day, also against the Marlins, Chicago was held to just six hits and shutout by Miami’s pitching staff.
Following that loss to the Marlins, the Cubs would go 6-9 to end the first half.
The second half has brought more of the same
Play resumed following the All-Star break on July 14, leaving 16 games on the schedule in the month of July. Despite their struggles in the first half, the Cubs posted a 13-3 record to end July, propelling them back to the top of the NL Central.
After finishing the month of July on a strong note, the Cubs seemed to keep things rolling into August by scoring 16 runs against the Diamondbacks on Aug. 1. Despite hitting .425 as a team in the 16-4 rout, the Cubs’ bats fell cold, notching only three hits in a 3-0 loss the following day.
Perhaps the most recent example of this problem that has plagued the Cubs for most of the season came just last week. On Friday, the Cubs produced 11 hits and rode a strong start from John Lackey to beat the Diamondbacks 8-3.
The following day, Saturday, the Cubs strung together nine hits, but failed to score until the ninth inning, losing 6-2.
Consistency will need to be found
Despite the Cubs’ quick start to the second half, they have cooled off in the month of August. Since their 16-4 win to begin the month, the Cubs have went 4-7 in their last 11 games.
That cold stretch has tightened the division, pulling four teams to within four games of each other.
With a month and a half remaining in the season, the Cubs will need to find consistency on offense. Thus far, any momentum that has been built up by big wins has only been thrown away with a loss the next day.
Even with their struggles this year, there is still time for the Cubs to turn things around. The first step in turning things around will be getting key players like Ben Zobrist and Kyle Schwarber going. If that happens, the runs should start flowing more easily, resulting in more blow-outs for the Cubs.
The Cubs currently hold a one-game lead in the division. All it will take to stretch that to four or five games is a more consistent offensive presence. Now is the time for the Cubs to pull away from the competition. On Monday, the Cubs begin a four-game set with the Reds followed by three games against the Blue Jays, three more against the Reds and three against the Phillies.