Chicago Cubs: A deeper look into the great debate, Bryant versus Arenado

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CHICAGO, IL – JULY 07: Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs runs the bases after hitting a solo home run in the 6th inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on July 7, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Despite delivering the game-tying RBI and scoring the winning run Saturday, fans continue to dog the Chicago Cubs’ Kris Bryant.

Last season, Bryant slashed .292/.385/.554 with a .396 wOBA (weighted on-base average). This year, in which he seems to draw near-constant criticism, he comes in at .278/.402/.528 with a .393 wOBA.

Bryant didn’t make the 2017 All-Star Game in Miami earlier this month. He wasn’t voted in originally by the fans and when voting became a chore almost, the Dodgers’ beat him out in MLB’s Final Vote process.

That’s fine. The Cubs were not good in the first half. Nolan Arenado had a phenomenal first half of the season, giving his Colorado Rockies playoff aspirations as they compete for an NL Wild Card spot with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arenado slashed .301/.351/.554 to go with his 17 home runs and 70 RBI.

Impressive slash line.

But the combination of Arenado’s stellar production and Bryant missing the Midsummer Classic doesn’t mean the latter is in the midst of a bad – or even a ‘down’ season.

Before we get into the serious numbers, let’s take a look at a few different categories. Durability, consistency and improvement show how great a player is over time.

Durability and consistency make a player

Bryant is lucky his hand injury didn’t turn out as bad as many thought after watching him slide into third base in Atlanta Wednesday. That’s because durability is one of Bryant’s strong suits. The Cubs’ third baseman has played in 151 games or more in his two full seasons in Chicago. This season, he has not missed any significant time either – despite rolling his ankle earlier in the year.

Arenado was fairly healthy his rookie season, playing in 133 games. However, in 2014 he played in just 111 games, missing the entire month of June and most of September. With all that said, he’s missed just six games combined in the two previous seasons and the 2017 campaign to-date.

Picking it up as he goes

If there is one thing that’s hard to support with concrete evidence, it’s which player is more consistent. Arenado struggled out the gates in his career at the plate. However, he dazzled with the glove, winning a Gold Glove Award in each of his first four seasons with the Rockies. Offensively, his .267/.301/.405 slash line wasn’t exactly eye-popping in 2013.

Eventually, the offense came for Arenado after a breakout season in 2015. He finished with a career-high 42 home runs, 130 RBIs and a slashed .287/.323/.575. Bryce Harper somehow had a better season, winning the NL MVP award. Arenado has produced similar numbers – including another 130+ RBI total last season. He’s proven to be a player the Rockies front office can rely on. He’s definitely taken advantage of what Coors Field has to offer.

He won the National League Rookie of the Year that season on his way to a .275/.369/.488 rookie campaign. His 26 home runs and 99 RBI led all rookies in the National League. His downfall came via his 199 strikeouts and his defense at third base. He finished the year with 17 errors. Despite his struggles, he showed how versatile he was playing 22 games at all three outfield positions and even played first base for a game.

Bryant showing steady improvement

Last season, Bryant showed drastic improvement with the glove. His errors dropped to just 12 and he continued to show his versatility by increasing his outfield work, playing in 75 games at one of the three outfield positions. After boasting a 30 percent strikeout rate in 2015, Bryant’s changed swing was one of the storylines of the spring.

He finished with 45 fewer strikeouts than in 2015. His slash line improved to .292/.385/.554 and he mashed 39 home runs, scored 121 runs and drove in 102 men on his way to the N.L. MVP Award and his first World Series ring. But you knew that already. In two seasons, Bryant’s become not only a superstar in Chicago but all of baseball and his consistency in all facets of the game is why.

DENVER, CO – JULY 08: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies rounds thrid base after hitting a 2 RBI home run in the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Coors Field on July 8, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Getting better with age in Colorado; battling the shift

I’ve mentioned how Bryant improved after just one season, but what about Arenado? After a sub par rookie season, Arenado hit 18 home runs and finished with 61 RBI his sophomore season. They’re not mind-boggling numbers, but they are productive.

He slashed .287/.323/.500, marking new career-highs. Over the last two-plus seasons, Arenado’s WAR skyrocketed from 2.9 in 2014 to 4.5, and eventually, 5.2.

His hard contact rate improved every season he’s been in the big leagues and the power numbers show. While he’s pulling the ball more than going to up the middle or to the opposite field, he still does all three enough to where the infield shift doesn’t exactly help the defense every single time if they set up in it.

Using the whole field

Like mentioned above, Bryant’s strikeouts have decreased since his rookie season. This season, his strikeout rate is down below 20 percent to 19.8 percent. That’s a big improvement in a year and a half. Another improvement is his walk rate, which is up to 15.9 percent compared to 10.7 percent last season. He’s also made a point to use the entire field more regularly.

In 2016, Bryant hit the baseball to the opposite field 19.7 percent of the time. This season, it’s up to 24.6 percent and his pull rate went from 46.7 percent to 39.8 percent. Why is this important? We live in an era where the infield shift is vastly popular.

SAN FRANCISCO, CA – AUGUST 26: Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs walks up to bat against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park on August 26, 2015 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

Take a look at the bigger picture with these guys

I’d take Bryant over Arenado. I won’t completely blame Coors Field for Arenado’s numbers, but it is an advantage. Offense at Wrigley Field truly depends on the wind most days, especially in the summer. It can be like Coors Field or it can seem like Petco Park in San Diego.

Chicago Cubs

Defensively, Arenado is clearly the superior player, but, as stated above, Bryant has proven to be a solid defensive player who is versatile. Having someone who can play multiple positions is valuable. For those who think runs batted in matter, Mike Trout has only surpassed 100 RBI twice in his career and he’s a two-time AL MVP and considered one of the top-two players in baseball.

Runs batted in don’t matter

Yes, Arenado is killing Bryant in the RBI total but that isn’t all Bryant’s fault. On the year, Bryant’s wRC+ is 23 points higher than the Rockies’ star. The old-school thinking, though, has led to some ‘interesting’ Twitter exchanges.

Simply put, the Cubs aren’t the same team they were last year. In several measures, last year’s championship club was historically efficient. So, with that step back, the run-scoring opportunities aren’t just falling in players laps in 2017.

At this point, we haven’t even delved into Bryant’s OPS. Thanks to a .401 on-base percentage (which would be a new career-high), he’s nearly in-line with his .939 OPS from a year ago. Arenado, meanwhile, edges him at .953 on the year.

The final thoughts

If we’re being honest, it comes down to this.

Bryant is essentially having the same season as last year when he won the MVP honors – minus the runs batted in. The fact the Cubs’ third baseman didn’t earn the fan vote for the All-Star Game hardly means he isn’t one of the league’s top talents, either.

Suffice to say, both Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado are elite talents. Suggesting otherwise is ridiculous – so let’s just stop doing it.

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