Chicago Cubs: What lies ahead for right-hander Jake Arrieta?

If I had to some up Jake Arrieta’s 2017 season with the Chicago Cubs in one word I would say it has been ‘costly.’

$200 million seemed like a lofty number six months ago. Now, it’s looking like the Chicago Cubs’ right-hander will be capped at around $100 million in free agency. That is, unless he turns in another historic second-half, as he did in 2015.

The 31-year-old bearded right-hander currently has a 4.17 ERA, a WHIP of 1.287, and has a FIP of 4.25.  Those numbers aren’t as bad as they were when he was with the Baltimore Orioles, but they’re close.

Just stop and think for a second, over the course of a year (second-half 2015 and first-half 2016) Arrieta was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball history.

After the Midsummer Classic two years ago, Arrieta had a 0.75 ERA, 0.727 WHIP and struck out 9.5 batters per nine innings pitched.  Those numbers are Gibson-esque.

While the numbers from first half of 2016 are not quite as superb, they still are very good.  Let’s use the same numbers, he had a 2.68 ERA, a 1.093 WHIP and, keeping it consistent, he was striking out 9.5 batters per nine.

I’ll go out on a limb and say that if he signed a contract extension around the All-Star Break last season, it would’ve been for a pretty penny.

Now, as Arrieta stares free-agency in the face, he is looking at an uglier penny.  Wait, can pennies be ugly, or even pretty for that matter?

Never mind that nonsense, the question is: what’s next for Jake Arrieta?

There’s been a lot of talk about the drop in Jake Arrieta’s velocity so far in 2017.

For those of you out there reading this that think it’s not a big deal – it is.  Every single one of Arrieta’s pitches has dropped significantly.

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According to his FanGraphs page: his fastball velocity is -1.7 mph from last year, sinker -1.9 mph, change-up -1.4 mph, slider -1.7 mph, and finally his curveball is down a whole two miles per hour.

This isn’t because Arrieta is abandoning his extreme diet and exercise plan, which he hasn’t.  This a direct correlation to the beating his arm has taken the past two seasons and in that same vein, getting older.

Combining 2015 and 2016, Arrieta threw 426 1/3 innings.  That workload takes an incredible toll on not just your body, but your psyche as well.

Back to the people who don’t believe velocity matters, just imagine the fastball that was impossible to catch up to in 2015 is now right in your wheelhouse in 2017.

Here’s the part of the article I feel like I have to talk about, but I feel unqualified to talk about it.

I’m not an agent, I do play one on TV though.  In all seriousness, understand that what I’m about to say is completely presumptuous and it’s just going off of my own opinion.

I think Jake Arrieta has lost over $100 million. And, after his start against Baltimore, he offered a very different take on his situation than what we’ve heard in the past:

Remember, the Cubsa nd Arrieta were having talks about a possible contract extension after the  2015 season.  You might remember Arrieta won this little award called the Cy Young Award and his stock was at an all-time high.

Two of the reasons why the deal didn’t get done:  Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, is known for taking his players to free agency.  Secondly, the Cubs seemed a little hesitant to offer Arrieta too long of a contract because they hadn’t seen enough sustained success.

That’s why I said earlier: ‘what if they signed a contract extension around the All-Star Break this time last year?’

It would’ve been a whole different story.  Arrieta was 30 at the time and just showed everyone that he could be successful for a long period of time.

If they had signed a deal at that time, I think it would’ve been in the neighborhood of six years and $180 million.  That would’ve put Arrieta in the top three in salary for pitchers in MLB history.