Chicago Cubs: 2018 rotation still needs help even with Quintana addition

The Chicago Cubs got one step closer to solving their rotation problems by trading for Chicago White Sox lefty Jose Quintana. However, with at least two members of the rotation likely gone, there is still more work to be done.

The Chicago Cubs rotation has been their Achilles heel this season. Aging veterans and under performing is the main cause of the struggles. To be fair, the Cubs rotation was the best in the majors last year and has dealt with back-to-back seasons of deep playoff runs. Regression is natural, but this year, it’s been historically bad. However, that is not the main reason for the Cubs looking for more starting pitching.

At season’s end, the Cubs are likely to lose 40% (and maybe more) of the 2017 rotation and have very little major league ready reinforcements in the minor league systems. That’s why they have focused the last few drafts on pitching, but those prospects are several years from reaching the big-leagues. So, the Cubs need to turn to trades and free agency to fill those gaps.

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Who’s Leaving?

By now, everyone knows Jake Arrieta‘s story. Arrieta is set to hit free agency for the first time in his career. With super-agent Scott Boras representing him, the Cubs knew it would be hard to re-sign him without breaking the bank. Sure enough, Arrieta said he is seeking a $200 million contract. But the Cubs should be able to afford him right? Yes, the Cubs have plenty of money to afford to sign a guy to a big contract BUT, can that money be better spent elsewhere?

For most fans, it’s not the fact that the Cubs would have to spend $200 million. It’s whether or not Arrieta is worth that type of money. Even before his subpar first half this season, most questioned whether he (now on the wrong side of 30) was worth that much. But that’s for a different article. Bottom line is that Arrieta likely leaves because they are not going to want to give the money he wants. If he continues to pitch the way he has this season, the Cubs might not want him back at all.

John Lackey is almost 39 and showing his age considerably. The three-time World Series champ has an ERA nearly 2 full points higher than 2016 and admitted that his body is catching up to him. Recently placed on the disabled list with plantar fasciitis, there’s no telling how reliable Lackey will be the rest of the season. Yes, he does eat innings, but he’s not worth the $16 million he’s getting paid. If he doesn’t retire, he could come back on a cheaper deal to be the fifth starter, but that doesn’t seem likely now.

Looking Ahead

With Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks, a lock for the 2018 rotation, that leaves Eddie Butler, Mike Montgomery, and Brett Anderson left. I do not see any scenario in which the Cubs bring back Anderson. He was absolutely brutal in eight starts and has spent most of the season on the DL with continued back issues.

Butler has pitched better than Anderson but has not really proved much in his 11 starts. While he does have the lowest ERA (3.88) of any starter now, he has been far from impressive. His 4.6 walks per nine innings is very concerning and he allows a ton of base runners. He doesn’t strike out many guys either, averaging just 5.1 K’s per nine innings. His 4.63 FIP indicates his ERA should be much higher as well. Not only has he pitched his way out of the 2017 rotation, he may also have pitched his way off the Cubs beyond this year.

Enter Jose Quintana

The Cubs took a huge step in the right direction by trading for White Sox lefty Jose Quintana. While Quintana struggled out of the gate in 2017, he has rebounded nicely with a 1.76 ERA since June and holds a career ERA of 3.51. At just 28, Quintana is under team control for 3 1/2 more years on a very team friendly contract. This will help bolster the 2017 rotation for sure. It’s a step in the right direction for 2018 and beyond but the Cubs need more help than Quintana.

So, as of writing this, the Cubs three guaranteed starters for 2018 are Lester, Quintana and Hendricks. That still leaves 40% of the rotation up in the air. Right now, you’d have to assume that Mike Montgomery figures into the 2018 rotation but he still seems more valuable as a swing man than as a full-time starter.

Next: Cubs landing Quintana changes second half course

The Cubs will continue looking for pitching and need at LEAST one more starter if not two. Quintana is a step in the right direction but is hardly the end. He will no doubt bolster that 2018 rotation and take some pressure from ace Lester. Quintana could actually slot third in the rotation to break up the lefty-lefty duo of Lester and Quintana. By the time the 2018 season starts, the rotation could have as many as three new pitchers from the Opening Day 2017 roster.