Chicago Cubs: The curious case of Jake Arrieta
After winning the Cy Young award two years ago, Chicago Cubs’ starter Jake Arrieta has not been the same pitcher
Four years ago, the Chicago Cubs pulled off one of the most lop-sided trades in recent memory. Back in 2013, the Cubs sent Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Pedro Strop and of course, Jake Arrieta.
Feldman, who had a 3.46 ERA in 15 starts before the trade, recorded a 4.27 ERA in as many starts with the Orioles after the swap. After the 2013 season, Feldman left for Houston and is currently pitching for the Cincinnati Reds.
Clevenger appeared in just four games for the Orioles in 2013 but managed to stick around for two more seasons. In just 65 games between 2014 and 2015, Clevenger slashed .258/.302/.384 and was eventually shipped to the Seattle Mariners.
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In 64 appearances (58 starts) before the trade, Arrieta had recorded a 5.33 career ERA. Despite that high ERA, Arrieta has since proven to be a diamond in the rough for Chicago. In three full seasons with the Cubs, Arrieta has recorded a 50-19 record with a 2.42 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.
For his efforts, Arrieta won the NL Cy Young award in 2015 and was voted to the All-Star Game in 2016.
While Arrieta’s accolades since joining the Cubs are impressive, a rough first half of 2017 is starting to plant seeds of doubt into people’s minds. These seeds of doubt may end up costing Arrieta a bundle this winter.
Arrieta’s timing could not have been worse
Entering the 2017 season, reports surfaced that Arrieta wanted a $200 million contract this off-season. This type of money would force teams to offer Arrieta at least a six or seven-year contract that would take the star pitcher close to 40 (Arrieta is currently 31).
Now, it would seem a deal anywhere close to $200 million is out of the question. In 17 starts this season, Arrieta owns a 4.33 ERA. While Arrieta is still striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings, his home runs allowed per nine is triple of what it was two years ago.
Looking deeper into Arrieta’s numbers, one can see trends unbecoming of a $200 million pitcher. According to FanGraphs, Arrieta’s line drive and fly ball rate is up from a year ago, while his ground ball rate is at its lowest point since the right-hander joined the Cubs. Moreover, Arrieta’s hard contact rate has risen each year since his Cy Young season.
A drop-off in Arrieta’s performance could not have happened at a worse time for the 31-year-old. Arrieta is on the wrong side of 30 and facing free agency after the 2017 season. While the Cubs will no doubt need all the pitching they can get, Arrieta does not seem like an option for the Cubs moving forward. This means another team will have to take a “chance” on an aging pitcher with an unorthodox delivery.
Is 2017 a fluke or a sign of something more?
With his success the last two seasons, Arrieta has established himself as one of the best pitchers in the game. Even though Arrieta is not displaying many signs of that this season, Cubs fans have been able to catch a glimpse or two of vintage Jake.
On Sunday, Arrieta looked like his old self once again. In seven innings against the Reds, Arrieta allowed just one hit and struck out six.
As noted above, Arrieta’s ground-ball rate has dropped significantly this season. Despite this, on Sunday Arrieta induced 11 ground balls compared to just five fly balls.
While Sunday’s game allowed us a glimpse of the old Jake, too many of Arrieta’s starts this season have ended badly. For example, look at Arrieta’s start prior to his masterpiece on Sunday. On June 27 against the Nationals, Arrieta lasted only four innings and surrendered six runs (five earned) on six hits. That, however, was not the worst part of the outing. Of the 24 batters Arrieta faced, he walked six of them.
Perhaps, Arrieta’s workload is starting to catch up with him. In 2015, Arrieta recorded 229 regular season innings and another 19 2/3 postseason innings. A year later, Arrieta totaled 219 2/3 innings between the regular and post season. That high volume of innings could no doubt have an impact on Arrieta, especially since he had not recorded more than 119 1/3 innings in a season before joining the Cubs.
Arrieta’s payday will still be large
Even with his struggles this season, Arrieta is still on track to get a huge contract this off-season. Most teams will not let one bad season ruin two or three great seasons. With that being said, do not expect Arrieta to get a $200 million deal this winter. For a team like the Yankees or Orioles who need starting pitching, Arrieta seems like a good option.
The deep pockets of the Yankees may drive the price of Arrieta’s services up, but do not expect the former Cy Young to get more than a $150 million deal. Spotrac is projecting a five-year deal worth north of $140 million for Arrieta. That would put Arrieta’s annual salary close to $29 million.
The Cubs need Arrieta to perform this season
While I’m sure Arrieta would like to fast forward to his big payday, the Cubs need the right-hander to perform if they hope to make it to the postseason. So far, Arrieta has been disappointing and is one of the many reasons why the Cubs can’t get going.
With injuries plaguing the Cubs’ rotation, Arrieta needs to step up and start stringing together some solid starts. Jon Lester cannot carry this rotation by himself, and no one expects him to.
As the All-Star break approaches, a chance to rest will present itself. If Arrieta’s workload is, in fact, part of the problem, this time to rest should do him some good. If rest proves ineffective, perhaps an underlying problem is starting to bubble to the surface.
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Arrieta still has time to salvage his 2017 campaign. A successful second half could earn Arrieta his $200 million contracts, while a bad second half could ruin his chances of a long-term deal.
Amidst all this off-season contract talk, Cubs fans just hope Arrieta can find success and help the North Siders win another World Series title.