Chicago Cubs: Assessing state of the National League Central

With the Chicago Cubs struggling, it’s time to assess the NL Central, and take stock of the North Siders’ competition

If one hundred baseball fans were polled at the beginning of the season, none would have predicted the Milwaukee Brewers to be in first place on June 21. Instead, many would have said the Chicago Cubs would be running away with the division. However, that has not been the case.

With the Cubs having picked up their 36th win of the season on Tuesday, they pulled within a half of the Brewers. Behind the Cubs are the Pirates and Cardinals who are in a dead-lock at four games off the pace. Even the Cincinnati Reds who are 1-9 in their ten games are still in contention at six and a half games back.

Despite the Cubs’ slow start, one can still foresee the Cubs winning the NL Central for the second year in a row. Still, the Cubs face an uphill battle, as the Brewers will do everything in their power to hold off the defending champions.

Now that the month of June is almost over, let’s assess the Cubs’ competition in the NL Central.

 Pittsburgh Pirates

33-38

The Pirates were dealt a huge blow in April when All-Star outfielder Starling Marte tested positive for PEDs. As a result of that positive test, Marte was suspended 80 games, and the Pirates lost one of their top outfielders.

With Marte suspended, Andrew McCutchen has been tasked with picking up the slack. Thus far, he has done a good job as he is slashing .268/.343/.494 with 14 home runs and 43 RBI. McCutchen leads Pittsburgh in home runs and RBI, while Josh Harrison leads the team in batting average, OBP, and hits.

Harrison has been able to produce offensively while also playing anywhere he is needed. The 29-year-old has logged innings at second and third base as well as left and right field.

In addition to Harrison and McCutchen, Josh Bell has been solid this season. The rookie who was called up on July 8, 2016, is slashing .230/.313/.451 with 12 home runs and 30 RBI in 71 games this season.

The Pirates’ rotation is full of young arms

Gerrit Cole is the ace of the Pirates’ staff, there is no doubt about it. However, Cole has struggled this season. In 15 starts, Cole is 5-6 with a 4.28 ERA, and 74 strikeouts in 90 1/3 innings pitched.

With Cole struggling, Ivan Nova has stepped up, and provided the Pirates with a starter they can count on. Nova was acquired by the Pirates last summer from the Yankees, and has done nothing but impress since swapping teams. In 11 starts for the Pirates last season, Nova posted a 3.06 ERA with 52 strikeouts and just three walks in 64 2/3 innings. This season, Nova is off to an even better start. The 30-year-old has made 14 starts, and recorded a 2.91 ERA with 54 strikeouts and nine walks in 96 innings pitched.

Besides Cole and Nova, the Pirates have a young and inexperienced starting rotation. Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl, and Tyler Glasnow have made a combined 70 major league starts. This number speaks to the inexperience and youth of the Pirates’ starting rotation.

Aside from their rotation, the Pirates’ bullpen is led by Felipe Rivero. Rivero has appeared in 37 games this season, and has recorded a 0.70 ERA with 41 strikeouts and eight walks in 38 1/3 innings pitched.

Despite their talent, the Pirates are struggling

At only five games back in the division, the Pirates are by no means out of the playoff picture. However, the Pirates will need more production out of their offense if they hope to make it to October.

The Pirates’ offense has scored 304 runs, good for 23rd in the majors. In addition to that, Pittsburgh’s .248 team batting average and .393 slugging percentage rank 20th, and 26th in the majors respectively.

These numbers suggest the Pirates will be out of the playoff picture by August, if not sooner. They are already 11 games back in the Wild Card race, so a division title would be the only way for the Pirates to make the postseason. With lack luster hitting, and young pitching, not many people see that as a possibility.

St. Louis Cardinals

32-37

Before the 2017 season even began, the Cardinals were looking to upgrade their offense. To do that, they signed 2016 World Series champion Dexter Fowler to a five-year, $82.5 million deal. Despite his hefty contract, Fowler has not preformed at his 2016 level. In 65 games, Fowler is slashing .253/.343/.498 with 13 home runs and 35 RBI. While he has tied his home run total from last season, Fowler’s batting average and OBP are lower than last year’s numbers.

Despite Fowler’s solid numbers the Cardinals’ offense has fallen on rough times in 2017. Currently, they rank 25th in runs, 16th in batting average, and 20th in slugging percentage.

Part of the problem has been Matt Carpenter. Carpenter is hitting a modest .247 with 57 strikeouts in 227 at-bats.

Despite some rough-looking numbers, the Cardinals’ hitters have started to come around of late, even if the win column doesn’t show it. In their last seven games, the Cardinals are 2-5. In that same time, both Fowler and Carpenter are hitting over .350, while Yadier Molina is hitting .292.

The Cardinals offense seems to be turning a corner, but the starting pitching has been terrible of late.

Recent starting pitching issues could sink the Cardinals

Over their last seven games, the Cardinals offense is averaging 6.6 runs per game. However, Cardinals’ pitching is allowing just over 6.7 runs per game in the same time frame.

The majority of the problem for the Cardinals over the last week has been the starting pitching. Aside from Carlos Martinez, Cardinals’ starters over the last seven days have an ERA just under 9.00. Overall, in the last week, Cardinals’ pitching has a 5.75 ERA and has allowed 46 earned runs and 16 home runs in 72 innings pitched.

Just as the offense was starting to get it together, the starting staff entered a rough stretch. If the Cardinals hope to make a push toward the postseason, they will need their starting staff to hold together.

Their performances in the last seven games have no doubt been the floor for the Cardinals pitching, and it should only get better from here.

Cincinnati Reds

30-40

Pitching wise, the Cincinnati Reds are one of the worst teams in the majors. With a 5.03 team ERA, the Reds rank 29th in the majors, while their 1.41 WHIP ranks 25th in the majors. Much of the reason for these bad numbers has been the play of the starting rotation.

The Reds have seen ten different pitchers make starts this season. Those pitchers have recorded an ERA north of 6.00, and own a 17-28 record. The lone bright spot for the Reds’ rotation has been Scott Feldman. Feldman has a 4.20 ERA in 15 starts, and has struck out 68 batters in 83 2/3 innings pitched.

The bullpen has picked up the rotation

The Reds’ bullpen has logged 280 innings this season. In that time, they are 13-12 with a 3.66 ERA.

Leading the charge in the bullpen is Raisel Iglesias. Iglesias has appeared in 29 games, and recorded a 1.59 ERA. In addition to that, Iglesias has notched 12 saves, and struck out 42 batters in 34 innings pitched.

With the starting rotation struggling, the Reds’ bullpen has been able to keep the team afloat. This could prove valuable come July if the Reds look to trade some of their top performing arms.

Cincinnati’s offense has been solid

Amidst the shortcomings of the rotation, the Reds’ offense has been good thus far. They have scored 346 runs which ranks tenth in the majors, and recorded a .455 slugging percentage which ranks in the top five in baseball.

The Reds’ offense has been led by two men for the majority of the season. Those two men are Zack Cozart, and Joey Votto. Cozart is slashing .320/.404/.562 with nine home runs and 33 RBI. For his efforts, Cozart could earn his first All-Star Game appearance. The 31-year-old is currently in the lead at the shortstop position, ahead of Los Angeles Dodgers’ Corey Seager.

Votto has been equally impressive as the 33-year-old is slashing .307/.414/.603 with 20 home runs and 53 RBI. Votto, in fact, leads the team in home runs, RBI, OBP, and hits.

Playing a supporting role to Votto and Cozart has been Scooter Gennett. The 27-year-old Gennett is slashing .287/.331/.553 with nine home runs and 37 RBI. In fact, four of Gennett’s nine home runs came in one game against the Cardinals on June 6.

It’s all downhill from here

Despite the Reds’ offense firepower, they don’t have enough pitching to make the postseason. With Bronson Arroyo, and now Zack Cozart on the DL, things well only continue to worsen for Cincinnati.

Already 6.5 games back in the division, the Reds look to be sellers at the trade deadline. With Cozart, and some other attractive trade chips available, the Reds would be foolish not to start stocking up for the future.

Who is going to challenge the Cubs?

The short answer is no one. Once the Cubs wake up from their slow start, it will be hard for any team in the NL Central to keep pace with the Cubs.

Right now, the Cubs are still the best team in the division. The wealth of talent the Cubs have is unmatched by any team in their division.

With the Cardinals rotation struggling, and the Pirates without one of their top offensive threats, neither St. Louis nor Pittsburgh seems able to challenge the Cubs.

As stated above, the fact that the Brewers are in first place is a fluke. Milwaukee is not built to win right now, and have rode solid performances from some key players to get where they are now.

Expect the division hierarchy to get back to normal soon. The Cubs are winners of their last three, and seem to be figuring it out at the plate.

Next: Chicago Cubs: Has innings total worn Arrieta down?

Even though the Brewers currently hold the lead, this division belongs to the Cubs.