Chicago Cubs: Has innings total worn Arrieta down?

Is Chicago Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta wearing down due to how many innings he has pitched since his Cy Young-winning 2015 season?

Jake Arrieta has pitched a lot of innings dating back to the start of the 2015 MLB season. In fact, Arrieta has thrown far more innings with the Chicago Cubs than he ever did with the Baltimore Orioles.

Before joining the Cubs midseason in 2013, Arrieta was in his fourth season with the Orioles. In total, Arrieta threw just 358 innings from 2010-2013 with the Orioles. Those 358 innings all came during the regular season; in fact, Arrieta never pitched for the Orioles in the playoffs.

Since joining the Cubs, Arrieta has thrown 712 1/3 regular season innings, nearly doubling his total from his stint with the Orioles. He has also thrown 42 postseason innings–19 2/3 in 2015 and 22 1/3 in 2016.

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Arrieta has been nothing short of spectacular since getting traded to the Cubs. During the 2013-2016 seasons, his ERA was 3.66, 2.53, 1.77 and 3.10, respectively, winning the NL Cy Young award in 2015. Unfortunately, his ERA has spiked during the 2017 season.

Through 14 starts (77 2/3 innings), Arrieta is 6-5 with a 4.64 ERA. His opponents’ batting average on balls in play is .319, up from .242 in 2016 and .247 in 2015. Essentially, opposing batters are not only scoring against him more, but they are reaching base more when making contact.

Workload wearing Arrieta down

While Arrieta has been dealing with a minor thumb issue this season, he says it is not to blame for his performance this season. He believes that his extensive workload the past two seasons has had some negative effect on his body. Arrieta is not hurt, but, his body has taken longer than usual to regain form.

"“As much as we don’t want to say that it carries over from season to season, throwing almost 500 innings over the past two years, I think it did have some effect,” he said."

There are many ways to look at Arrieta’s situation, including both positively and negatively. On the one hand, it is good to see that Arrieta’s struggles are not due to a significant injury.

Despite being in the midst of a subpar season, an injury could have long-term as well as short-term implications, however. If injured, Arrieta’s poor numbers and possible absence would be a double-whammy in terms of hurting the Cubs. Arrieta’s struggles are even more worrisome because he is healthy, however.

Is there a solution?

The fact that Arrieta believes he is pitching poorly due to a previously high workload is a problem that has no true fix. Essentially, Arrieta could start pitching like his “usual” self any day now, or he may not at all anytime soon. There is no telling how long his body would need to “recover” to get him back to form.

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If Arrieta is truly reaping the affects of a heavy workload, receiving some off time could be the only true solution. The Cubs could continue to employ a six-man rotation, giving starters an extra day off between starts. This, along with the forthcoming All-Star break, could be just what the doctor ordered for Arrieta.

There is no telling what has to happen to get Arrieta back into form. Until that day comes, though, the Cubs can only be happy that he is healthy and hope he pitches better and better as the season progresses.