Chicago Cubs: Breaking down Jake Arrieta’s ineffectiveness in 2017

Who is hitting Arrieta and how?

Breaking down all the numbers against Jake Arrieta can be a bit overwhelming. So we decided to boil it down to three main points that need addressing:

1. Control the top of the order
2. Get ahead in the count
3. Thrive under pressure

Let’s start with the first point.

In his seven starts this year, the top two hitters in opposing lineups have feasted on the right-hander. Leadoff men are batting .316/.381/.526 and the two-hole bats come in even hotter at .368/.429/.789 – good for a 213 OPS+.

This goes hand-in-hand with the Cubs’ first-inning woes on the mound. Arrieta has a 12.86 earned run average in the first. To be blunt, it’s near-impossible to have success when you dig yourself a hole like that.

I, personally, think of the first inning as a typically ‘low leverage’ situation. It’s in these situations Arrieta finds the most success, limiting opponents to a .292 OBP this season. We’re probably oversimplifying things, but if he wants to turn things around, the right-hander must take care of business early and settle in.