Chicago Cubs: Comparing this year’s offense to last year’s club

Last year, the Chicago Cubs ranked near the top of virtually every offensive category, en route to a World Series title. Through the season’s first month, how has the offense fared compared to 2016?

Through the first month of their championship season, the Chicago Cubs carried a team slash-line of .255/.364/.432. They scored 136 runs, drawing 121 base-on-balls and striking out 167 times.

The Cubs also recorded a BABIP of .290 during April of 2016, while leading baseball with a 13.7 percent walk rate. This year, Chicago owns a .259/.342/.422 slash-line, with 92 walks and 212 strikeouts, with a BABIP of .318, while scoring 120 runs.  The team’s walk rate is down from 2016, as well, at 9.9 percent.

Based on those numbers just through April, you would guess that the 2016 offense is just a little bit better.  A controversial part of any team’s offense is how they perform with runners in scoring position – as we’ve seen early in 2017.

Last year, the Cubs posted a .252/.351/.420 slash-line with runners in scoring position.  So far, in 2017, the Cubs carry a .245/.356/.427 slash-line in similar situations.  Those clamoring that the Cubs are “bad” with runners in scoring position…well, as a great man named Bill Lumbergh once said: “Yeah, I’m going to have to go ahead aaand…disagree with you there!”

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Perfect execution is impossible

The Cubs get so many runners on base from game to game, which, in turn, results in more runners in scoring position.  The Cubs simply won’t cash in every single time. The law of averages just doesn’t allow that to happen, but, the Cubs are still scoring enough to suffice for a full season.

Through April 2016, the Cubs averaged 6.1 runs per game, and finished the season with 4.98, just about five runs per game.  So far in 2017, the Cubs average 5.22 runs per game.  Five runs a night is usually going to win you about 60 percent of baseball games.

The offense, based on these numbers, has not been the problem for the Cubs so far this season.  That is clearly starting pitching.  With all the first inning runs allowed, it’s unfair to the offense to expect them to play from behind every game.  Once the pitching figures itself out, and the offense keeps doing what they’re doing, the Cubs should be just fine and start running the division again.

Next: Sox take series from Cubs

Think about it like this: the Cubs have played nowhere near how they are capable, and they are still in first place in the National League Central.  Now, part of that is that nobody is really sure how good the Cardinals, Brewers, and Pirates actually are.

Still, holding a division lead while not playing your best ball is promising. It’s been one month and the Chicago Cubs haven’t played like champions. But they’ll be just fine when the dust settles.