Chicago Cubs: Heyward trending up; Rizzo off to a slow start

The Chicago Cubs season has just started and we’ve got six games as a sample size. Of course, it’s too early to draw any conclusions–but we’re going to do it anyway, just for conversation’s sake.

As the Chicago Cubs entered this season, there was one hitter that they were hoping would get it together in 2017. Now, the other side is that they didn’t want to trade one to get the other. But so far, that’s been somewhat the case for Jason Heyward and Anthony Rizzo. The revamped swing of Heyward is paying off early. But Rizzo seems to still be pressing a bit. He’s been a streaky hitter for the Cubs, so the expectation is that he will level out. But it’s still a bit worrisome to start the year.

Last year, Heyward won his fourth Gold Glove of his career. He gave the speech that helped the Cubs put the Rajai Davis home run to the back of their minds and win the World Series. But everyone will remember him for his .230 average and his $180+ million contract. But it wasn’t up to his standards, and he knew that it wasn’t what the Cubs expected of him. So Heyward went to work almost immediately this offseason.

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If you watched the Cubs last season, it’s almost a sure bet you turned on the game and saw Heyward ground out weakly to second base. It seemed to make up most of his outs. He rolled over everything, and couldn’t catch up with a fastball. And that’s EXACTLY what most team’s were throwing him. He simply couldn’t hit it.

Fast forward to Sunday and for now, the results are looking good. Heyward was 2-for-5 with a triple and three RBI, but he easily could have been 5-for-5. He’s got his hands in a better hitting position and is crisp through the zone.

It’s hard not to be excited about this. But after last season, how can you not be? After Sunday’s game, he’s hitting .333 (7-for-21) with a triple, four RBI and just one strikeout. His teammate and fellow ring designer? Things aren’t going as well for Rizzo.

A model of consistency

Being overly concerned about Rizzo is a bit silly. In his time in Chicago, he’s had these stretches where he struggles to hit. It’s just unusual for him to start the season like this, especially when everyone is looking for something to talk about. In Rizzo’s case, the struggles may actually come from being too patient, not too aggressive.

He’s seeing 4.41 P/PA (pitches per plate appearance), which while a very small sample is the highest of his career. Just like Kris Bryant needed that infield single to jump-start him this season, it may be something similar that Rizzo will need. But baseball is a game of averages, and Rizzo is the poster boy for this. Take these numbers for example:

Next: Happ, Candelario picking up where they left off this spring

So looking at these numbers, I see no reason to be concerned about Rizzo at the plate. As long as the rest of the lineup is picking him up–like the rest of the team did for Heyward last year–the Cubs will be alright. The starting pitching has been as good as advertised. The bullpen is doing better than I expected. And with Heyward looking like he did in 2015, the Cubs are off to a strong start.