Chicago Cubs: Five Cubs players who will improve in 2017
With Opening Day so close, which Chicago Cubs players can you realistically expect to make at least minor improvements this season?
It’s scary to think the reigning World Series Champions could actually get even better in 2017, but it’s entirely possible. Major League Baseball will make its return on Sunday evening with the Chicago Cubs set to face off against the Cardinals in St. Louis.
So who can we expect to improve?
It’s important to remember the Chicago Cubs are still a relatively young team. And for many young players on this team, the ceiling still has room to get even higher. There are even some veteran players who are capable of taking a step forward from where they were last season.
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This isn’t to say some of these players haven’t reached their peak. It might just be that they had somewhat of a down year last season and are looking to take a step in the right direction this time around.
Realistic expectations
All things considered, we have to be realistic about this.
Is Kris Bryant going to make major improvements at the plate this season? Probably not. And that’s not a knock on him. Quite the opposite actually. In 2016, Bryant was an 8.4 WAR player with a wRC+ of 149. Those numbers are insane. He may very well make it a repeat campaign for the NL Cy Young award, but to expect those particular numbers to get even better is just unrealistic.
#5. Addison Russell
Only 23 years old, Addison Russell has been a valuable asset for the Chicago Cubs in his fist two years. But there’s still room for improvement. In 2016, the young shortstop slashed .238/.321/.417 with 21 home runs and 95 RBI. Now, 21 homers and 95 runs driven in is nothing to scoff at, but if Russell can improve his patience at the plate, he could be even better this season.
Perhaps the most encouraging thing offensively has been the power numbers Russell has managed to put up. He ranked seventh in the league last year with 21 home runs. That’s fantastic for a shortstop. It took Russell a while to tap into that power last year, so if he can find the big stick early on this season, that home run total could get even higher.
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Russell’s OBP (.321) from last season is right on par with what the league average usually is. At such a young age, that’s fine. His OBP from 2015 was a meager .307, so he’s already made strides. And as his confidence at the plate continues to grow, we could see an even bigger jump this season.
Gold Glove-worthy defense
Defense is what has really defined Russell so far. It’s not too far-fetched think he’s capable of getting better on defense, but by all accounts, he’s already one of the best defenders in the game.
Last year, Russell had an astounding 15.4 UZR. That’s Gold Glove-caliber defense. It really is a shame he didn’t win a Gold Glove award last season, because he deserved it.
Bottom line: Addison Russell has been a tremendous young player so far, but the tools are there for him to improve his game even further. Look for him to have a greater impact in the Cubs’ lineup this year.
#4. Jason Heyward
Jason Heyward had an abysmal year at the plate in 2016. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. He was flat-out awful. But his offensive woes from last season are uncharacteristic of the player he’s generally been for the majority of his career.
In 2016, Heyward put up an atrocious slash line of .230/.306/.325. All while hitting a paltry seven home runs. Ideally you’d like to see more power from a corner outfielder, but that may not be in the fold for Heyward.
Chicago Cubs
However, this does not mean it will be more of the same at the plate this year. For his career, Heyward has slashed .262/.346/.415. Those are the numbers of a reliable hitter. Before signing with the Chicago Cubs, the 27-year-old outfielder hit .293/.359/.439 with the St. Louis Cardinals. Those offensive numbers combined with his always-spectacular defense made him a 6.0 WAR player in 2015. That’s MVP-caliber.
That’s not to say Heyward will be an MVP-caliber player this year. It would be foolish to expect that. But it wouldn’t be foolish to think Heyward will look more like the player he’s accustomed to being this season.
Elite defense a sure-thing
Like Addison Russell, elite defense is something you can always count on from Heyward. Despite his struggles at the plate, Heyward had an impressive UZR of 16.4 in 2016. That alone made it worth it for the Cubs to keep him in the lineup.
He’s spent a great deal of time over the offseason working on the mechanics of his swing. If he can get close to the same plate production he had in St. Louis, then look out; Heyward will be a force to be reckoned with in the Cubs’ lineup.
#3. Hector Rondon
Hector Rondon had an up-and-down season in 2016. Giving up his role as the team’s closer to make way for Aroldis Chapman, the right-handed reliever struggled with nagging injuries.
Rondon recorded a 3.53 ERA (114 ERA+) over 51 innings pitched. These numbers are not “bad” by any stretch, but it’s a bit of a drop in production from what Rondon usually does. In 2015, Rondon pitched to the tune of a 1.67 ERA with 69 strikeouts over 70 innings pitched.
It’s easy to try and attribute any struggles Rondon might have had to his injury problems. But that may not be the whole picture. Rather, his psyche might have been affected when he lost his job as the closer.
Let’s take a look at his splits. In the first half of 2016, Rondon had a 1.72 ERA with 42 strikeouts over 31.1 innings pitched. After the All-Star break, he recorded a 6.41 ERA with 16 strikeouts over 19.2 innings pitched.
He just wasn’t the same pitcher in the second half of the season. So much so that he was barely used down the stretch and in the playoffs.
Rondon was fantastic for the Chicago Cubs in 2014 and 2015. Look for him to get back on track this season and play a larger role in the Cubs’ bullpen.
#2. Kyle Schwarber
This seems like an obvious one. After tearing both the ACL and LCL in his left knee to start the season, Kyle Schwarber missed nearly all of the 2016 regular season. Then, of course, he stormed back and dominated in the World Series, helping the Cubs win their first championship in 108 years. No big deal.
Often times, the Comeback Player of the Year award goes to a player who spent the majority of the previous season on the disabled list. This makes Schwarber a prime candidate.
In 2015, Schwarber slashed .246/.355/.487 with 16 home runs in just 69 games played. Those are outstanding numbers, especially for a rookie. Hitting 16 home runs in 69 games gave us a real display of the power Schwarber possesses. If he can stay healthy for most of this season, it will be entertaining to see how many long balls he can crank.
Making adjustments on the fly
In what areas can Schwarber improve? Two places: defense and plate discipline.
Now, it should be noted that Schwarber’s poor defense in the 2015 NLCS has greatly distorted people’s view of his defense as a whole. Schwarber had a UZR of 0.3 for the 2015 regular season, which isn’t great, but it isn’t bad either. It’s…average. But he can improve. Keep in mind, Schwarber doesn’t have the body of a prototypical outfielder, and it was his rookie year.
He hasn’t quite given up the dream of being a catcher just yet, but the majority of his playing time will be in the outfield this year. Don’t be surprised if Schwarber ends up being a much better defender this season.
As for plate discipline, this is an area in which he could very easily improve, but doesn’t necessarily need to. Players who hit for great power, as Schwarber is expected to, don’t need to hit for a particularly high average to be productive hitters in a lineup. But with Schwarber expected to be a leadoff hitter, at least to start the season, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him work to improve his patience. He may not look like your typical leadoff hitter, but Schwarber knows how to take a walk, and with a .355 OBP from 2015, he can prove it.
#1. Javier Baez
Like Schwarber, Javier Baez is a fan-favorite among the North Side-faithful. Last season saw Baez taking strides to improve his game, slashing .273/.314/.423 in 450 plate appearances. Baez is tricky, because he tends to be a bit streaky. He’ll go through stretches where he’s totally dominant at the plate, but he’ll also have periods where he couldn’t hit a watermelon if it was being hurled at him.
Like a lot of young players (Baez is only 24), Baez sometimes tries to do too much. As we’ve seen, he’s got a powerful swing, and sometimes he swings out of his shoes. This is where Baez can improve. Not trying to do everything all at once, taking walks when they’re given. His Achilles’ heel thus far has been the curveball, which many pitchers used to strike him out.
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ZiPS‘ 2017 projections actually have Baez regressing quite a bit with an OBP of .303. While Baez certainly could take a step backwards, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him progress as a hitter, either.
Searching for a role
Baez may get even more playing time than he received last year. Though Ben Zobrist would prefer to stay at second base, he may end up getting significant outfield time in order get more starts for Baez. Just like Zobrist, Baez has developed into a utility player, having played second base, shortstop, third base, first base and left field.
His primary destination, however, will continue to be second base. The duo of Baez and Russell in the middle infield was lethal defensively last season. That’s a tandem the Cubs will want to use more often. Like a lot of the players on this Cubs team, Baez can flash the leather. On a daily basis, he’s one of the most entertaining players in all of baseball. In 2016, he was worth 2.0 dWAR.
With experience under his belt, good players hitting around him and added playing time, this could be the year Baez begins to really flourish. If he can significantly improve his plate discipline, he’s a five-tool player in 2017.