Chicago Cubs: Grimm or Edwards Jr in playoff bullpen?

Concocting the perfect playoff roster takes careful attention to detail, something that Chicago Cubs skipper Joe Maddon might as well have a Ph.D. in.

There are still some tough questions still left for Maddon to answer before the NLDS kicks off on October 7^th. Namely, which righty-specialist should the Cubs carry: Justin Grimm or Carl Edwards Jr.?

The Case for Grimm

This year, Grimm has appeared in the second-most games of any Cubs reliever (67). Justin picked up 10 holds, though he leads the bullpen in earned runs allowed. His 11.18 K/9 is fourth highest on the team, beating out set-up man Hector Rondon by just under one point.

Under the tutelage of pitching coach Chris Bosio, Grimm slowly cut his changeup and slider from his arsenal and started utilizing his curveball more. This is primarily due to the lack of effectiveness on his fastball, ranked at -7.8 runs above average. He threw his curve on 53.1% of pitches this year, generating a 10.5 runs above average rating on that pitch.

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Control has been an adversary for Grimm. He recorded his second highest BB/9 and wild pitch totals in 2016, which helps explain his sharp increase in ERA from 2015. He’s also in the top-5 for hits and home runs allowed by a Cubs reliever.

Unfortunately for Grimm, not having a go-to fastball makes him a one-trick pony. And, on top of that, he has no way of setting up that trick.

Edwards Makes it Count

C.J—or the String Bean Slinger in some circles—has been one of the best surprises of the year for the Cubs. At just 24-years-old, Edwards recorded the team’s second-lowest WHIP (0.83) and second-highest K/9 (13.11). His 51 strikeouts sandwich him between Travis Wood and Rondon for fifth most, even though he’s only thrown 35 1/3  innings.

Edwards is essentially a two-pitch pitcher like Grimm, though his fastball is more effective. At 10.4 runs above average, Edwards’ is able to utilize this pitch to set up his 12-6 curve to hitters on both sides of the plate. The fact that he averages 95 MPH on his fastball certainly helps his cause.

Hitters are swinging at 33.6% of Edward’s pitches outside of the strike zone, inducing a 50% ground ball rate. Opponents are barreling up his pitches for hard contact only 28% of the time, compared to Grimm’s 31.7%. Edward’s pull rate (25.6%) is also significantly lower than Grimm’s (39.9%). This suggests that batters have a hard time picking up his pitches.

Next: The tale of two seasons

Not every pitcher in the Cubs bullpen needs to have a three or four pitch arsenal to be successful, especially in the playoffs. A controlled, power fastball like Edwards has is valuable in tight situations. Look for Maddon to utilize him against hitters like Yasiel Puig (-3.3) and Jay Bruce (-2.6) who have struggled against fastballs in 2016