Chicago Cubs: What wins championships?

There is the old Bear Bryant quote that say “Offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships.” Does that work for the Chicago Cubs in baseball?

It may, but not a guaranteed stat to follow like you one sees in football. What does it take to win a World Series? Is there a stat that can be pointed to and show the likelihood of the Chicago Cubs making it to October baseball? The quick answer it no. There is no single stat to help predict the World Series winner. Typically, is it a combination of two out of three stats that will help.

For our discussion, let’s focus our minds on three team starts: batting average, ERA, and defensive efficiency rating. Because of the depth of stats that go into each of these areas, simplifying our focus on these will provide clarity to our conversation. Additionally, we can call them offense, pitching, and defense.

When looking at the stats from this perspective, it is clearer to see a pattern in the World Series winner for each year. Since 2005, seven of the 11 champions were held top-10 position in two categories. The combination of the two have not mattered. For example, in 2012, the San Francisco Giants were fifth in hitting and seventh in pitching but were first in pitching and fourth in defense in 2010. There have been only three years in which a team was in the top ten of all three categories: Kansas City in 2015, the Giants in 2014, and the Boston Red Sox in 2007. The four years in which the winning team did not place in the top ten in at least two categories? The 2006 and 2011 St. Louis Cardinals, the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies, and the 2013 Boston Red Sox.

Here is another interesting fact about the last 11 World Series Champions: only two, the 2010 Giants and 2008 Red Sox, lead any of the three categories, which was pitching and defense, respectively. Therefore, we cannot look to any single area to say “YES! The Cubs are the best in the MLB in (blank) area, so they have a really good chance to win it all!” That would be too easy. We cannot even look to being second in the MLB since that has only happened four times since 2005. No one has ranked eighth or ninth in any category and won the World Series in that time either.

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What does this all mean for the 2016 Cubs? A great deal. As of today, the Chicago Cubs are 15th in hitting, second in ERA, and first in defense. Good. They meet the main criteria. Before the end of the first half, the pitching was tops in the league as well, but the staff has cooled off tremendously. If we broke the stats dow further, say to wild pitches or on-base percentage, the Cubs look unbeatable. So, why don’t we do that.

Offense: It has been fun to watch the team so far this year. The Bryant-Rizzo tandem, leading in HRs and WAR. Even through the team is 15th in terms of average, they are second in runs in the MLB. Part of that is because they are best in the league at walking, to the tune of 380 BB so far this year. That is 33 more than the next team. Keep runners on, move them over, and bring up the next person.

Some other offensive stats to look into are number of sacrifice flies and double plays the Chicago Cubs have hit. Think about it this way: they leave an average of 3.98 runners on in scoring position per game. As a team, they are 26th in sacrifice flies, hitting only 18 this season. For a team that scores so many runs, they have left many runners on third base by striking out or a pop-up with one out. Additionally, they have grounded into 64 double plays, which is eighth best. Still, with runners on and in scoring position, more fly balls maybe in order.

Pitching: Let’s not spend a great deal of time here. We have seen the talent and abilities of this staff, and much as already been said about the slump. The rotation and bullpen needed the All-star break more than any other Cubs player. Even with the slump, the team is second in ERA. But there are a couple other things to investigate.

The outs created by the pitching staff is fairly balanced. They have 788 strikeouts, 831 groundouts, and 725 fly outs. Not bad. The stat that caught my attention though is the amount of double plays. That would be 49. Forty-nine. Now, some of this is due to the no neighborhood rule at second base and the fact that team does not allow a ton of base runner. But some of this is on the pitchers being easy to run off of. If they can hold runners on a bit better, this stat should improve.

Next: Five predictions for the second half

Defense: The Cubs? Number one in defensive efficiency? Yes, they are and they have ranked high in the past 11 years. However, they suffer in stolen bases, errors committed, and wild pitches. Free bases to quality teams will hinder the success of the Cubs. Many of these blunders occurred during the Cubs’ slump and with young players involved. If the team hopes to make it to October, this must improve.

The numbers do not lie. The Chicago Cubs are a great team. But, if the goal is to end the World Series drought, the team will need to adjust their approach just a bit. With the second half started, the drive to the October is in full swing.

There is the old Bear Bryant quote that say “Offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships.” Does that work for the Chicago Cubs in baseball?

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