Chicago Cubs: Putting a price tag on Jake Arrieta

Dating back to the beginning of last season, there isn’t a pitcher in the majors that has been as dominant as Jake Arrieta.

He’s cut through opposing lineups like a blazing hot knife through a stick of butter.  In fact, in his last 23 starts Arrieta has more no-hitters (2) than losses (1).

In 2015, Arrieta went 22-6 with 1.77 ERA, earning him his first career NL Cy Young award.  Many thought Arrieta would see a steep drop-off in production, but so far he is off to a blistering start with a 6-0 record and a 1.13 ERA.  Not only has he picked up where he left off, he looks even better.

With Arrieta set to become a free agent after the 2017 seasons, questions about his future with the Chicago Cubs have started to emerge.

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Multiple reports have surfaced that Arrieta and the Chicago Cubs are nowhere close to coming to terms on a long-term extension. This should come as a surprise to no one considering Arrieta and the Cubs struggled to come to terms when he was arbitration-eligible prior to this season.

After Stephen Strasburg signed a seven-year, $175 million extension deal with the Washington Nationals, Arrieta was quick to note that he should be entitled to an even more lucrative deal than Strasburg’s. When asked by Bill Ladson of MLB.com (via ESPN) if he deserved a similar deal, Arrieta responded; “I’ll let you judge that.  Just look at the numbers.”

Arrieta went on to say; “That’s why starting pitching is so valuable. There are not many guys that can pitch at the top of the rotation floating around the league…aces get seven years. You want to be paid in respect to how your peers are paid. I don’t think that changes with any guy you ask.  It happens around baseball every year.”

While Arrieta is correct about being paid in accordance to how players of similar caliber are paid, there is a key factor that distinguishes other aces — experience.

The trade that sent Arrieta from the Baltimore Orioles to the Chicago Cubs is now considered to be extremely lopsided, but at the time, it was perfectly fair. Though his talent was never denied, Arrieta struggled mightily to live up to that talent, posting a 5.46 ERA and a 20-25 record during his four seasons in Baltimore.

After coming to the Cubs?  Arrieta has posted a 2.15 ERA with a 42-13 record. Night and day.  This kind of career resurgence is not often seen in MLB, and whether the Cubs choose to do so or not, Arrieta is going to get paid handsomely when the time comes.

When asked whether he’d be willing to give the Chicago Cubs a hometown discount, Arrieta responded with a sharp “no.”

Arrieta has made it fairly clear that he’d prefer to stay in Chicago, but if they are unwilling to meet his demands, he has no problem walking away.

This is troubling to Cubs fans, and understandably so. They don’t want to see their star ace pitching for another franchise.

While Arrieta’s dominance can’t be understated, the Cubs front office will have to weigh their options and determine whether or not they can afford to throw such a massive deal his way.

Jason Heyward has an expensive new contract, and with a slew of immensely talented youngsters, Epstein and company will need to start figuring out ways to hold onto as many of them as possible.

Arrieta feels that he does not owe the Cubs anything, and while it is true that he has been a vital part of the Cubs recent success, he may not want to take his position for granted.

It could very well be that Arrieta wouldn’t have become the top-of-the-rotation ace that he is today if he hadn’t been traded to the Cubs. Chicago gave him the freedom to pitch the way he saw

Chicago gave him the freedom to pitch the way he saw fit and gave him the green light to throw his blistering cut-fastball. Had he not been traded to Chicago, Arrieta might still be struggling in Baltimore.

It’s not what Cubs fans want to hear, but if Arrieta won’t accept anything less than seven years and $200 million, it might be in the Cubs best interest to let him walk. Arrieta will be entering his age 32 when it comes time to sign a new deal. It might be hard to justify throwing that kind of money at an aging pitcher who’s only been dominant for a few years.

That’s not to say that a deal couldn’t be reached between the two sides. While he is getting older, he does have the advantage of having significantly less miles on his arm. While aces similar in age to Arrieta are floating around 2,000 innings pitched, Arrieta is at a mere 843.

Next: Chicago Cubs: What to do with Jorge Soler?

A fresh arm may very well be enough to convince the Cubs to make a record-setting deal with the ace pitcher, but should they decide to go a different route, fans should stay realistic about the Cubs’ financial flexibility while weighing the potential risks.

For the time being, Cubs fans can comfortably watch Arrieta pitch in Chicago for the remainder of the season as well as next season. One way or another, Arrieta is going to fetch a mammoth deal.

Whether or not it happens with the Chicago Cubs, only time will tell.