Chicago Cubs: Breaking down an offseason to-do list

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Nov 3, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer (left) and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein (right) watch manager

Joe Maddon

(center) put on his jersey and hat as he is introduced during a press conference at the Cubby Bear Lounge near Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

After winning 97 games in 2015, the Chicago Cubs don’t need another ace – and their offseason plans won’t include one, despite the wishes of hopeful fans.

Let’s start off this conversation by making a few things clear.

As nice as it would be to simply throw money at a roster to win a World Series, that’s not the way baseball works. Many teams, more recently including the Los Angeles Dodgers, have learned this the hard way – while other like the New York Yankees are left with the remnants of such shopping sprees in the form of massive contracts to aging, injured players.

The new front office regime in Chavez Ravine, as well as the ownership group, have publicly stated their desire to cut payroll and field a younger, albeit still very competitive, ball club as early as 2016 – something the Chicago Cubs are positioned to do for the next several seasons already.

Given the Cubs’ lack of long-term major payroll obligations, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are in a rare position: the hold a collection of young, controllable talent that will, at least for the next few years, remain relatively affordable.

Don’t get me wrong: this team has plenty of items to address this offseason – we saw this in the National League Championship Series, when the Cubs were swept in four-straight by the New York Mets. But they’re only a few pieces away from returning to October in 2016.

Step One: Bring back Dexter Fowler to man center field

Last season, when Dexter Fowler did his part at the dish, the Chicago Cubs were near-unstoppable. It was true in the regular season and it rang true again when the postseason rolled around – and not bringing him back would be a big mistake.

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He’s likely to be one of the more sought-after outfielders in the game, especially when you consider his competition in center field. We’ve broken down some of the Cubs’ other options in the past, but, as time passes, Fowler looks more and more attractive.

In Cubs wins, the veteran leadoff man turned in an .839 OPS, including a .376 on-base percentage – which drew a stark contrast to his performance in Chicago losses (.625 OPS/.296 OBP). Not to mention, he also swiped 20 bags, something no Cubs player had done since both Starlin Castro and Tony Campana surpassed that mark back in 2012.

On the flip-side, defensive metrics suggest that at-best, Fowler was league average (based on lgFld%) – although he did possess above-average range, which you should expect to hold up for the next few years given he’s just 29 years of age.

If he does just what he did in 2015 for the next few years, he’ll be worth every penny. His on-field contributions, coupled with his clubhouse impact, make him an ideal member of this team for years to come.

Next: Shore up the starting rotation

Step Two: Bring in Jordan Zimmermann

As some of you likely are as well, I am an avid listener of MLB Network Radio. Earlier this week, I called in to Inside Pitch, a program hosted by Casey Stern and former Cincinnati Reds GM Jim Bowden.

I prefaced my call with this: “While everyone is hopeful the Cubs will sign either Zack Greinke of David Price, I just don’t think it’s necessary for the team to win it all next year.”

Bowden agreed and then laid out the plan that I had already formulated and, thus, makes up a large portion of this piece (bring back Fowler, sign Zimmermann, etc). But why the Washington Nationals right-hander instead of one of the “top two” arms on the market? Because, in the end, I don’t expect him to be that much worse than Price or Greinke.

Now, yes. Those two are on a completely different level. You could make a very strong case that both should have won their respective league’s Cy Young honors this season – each turning in dominant performances to lead their clubs to October. But when you look at Zimmermann, he profiles perfectly for what the Chicago Cubs need.

For whatever reason, no one really cares just how good this guy has been in Washington. In two of the last three years, he’s finished in the top five of NL Cy Young voting, winning at least a dozen games in each of the last four seasons.

The two-time All-Star has average a low-3.00 ERA in that same stretch, pitching to a record 26 games above .500 to go along with an impressive 4.37 strikeout-to-walk ratio, as well as a 3.33 FIP.

He’s going to be considerably cheaper than either of the top two options on the free agent market. It’s time the Cubs play it smart, add a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm and save the excess $50 million to address other areas.

Next: Trade Starlin Castro for more pitching

Jul 8, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro against the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Step Three: Trade Starlin Castro for starting pitching

With a logjam of middle infielders, including Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Tommy La Stella and others, in the mix, it looks more and more like Starlin Castro won’t finish out his current deal in a Chicago Cubs uniform.

That doesn’t mean Theo and Jed will simply dump him for nothing – he has too much potential for that. In fact, I’ve repeatedly made the case for keeping Castro long-term. But after a strong finish to 2015, I believe one of two things will happen.

One: Chicago takes a lesser return and deals Castro this winter

Two: Chicago sits tight, hopes Castro has a strong first-half and deals him at the deadline

Either way, he’s on his way out – at least in my mind.

So assume they trade him this winter. What’s the Cubs’ biggest need? Starting pitching. Don’t be surprised to see Chicago hook up with someone like Atlanta or San Diego on a deal that would bring someone like Tyson Ross or Shelby Miller to the North Side, although the latter would probably take more than just Castro to get it done.

Castro enters next season less than 10 hits away from 1,000 knocks in his young big-league career. He’s a three-time All-Star who can play both middle infield positions and has plenty of ‘pop’ in the bat. Suffice to say, he’s a decent trade chip – especially with Baez waiting in the wings to take over at second.

Next: Sign at least one quality relief pitcher

Step Four: Bring in arms to add depth, power to the bullpen

Yesterday, it was reported that former Baltimore Orioles reliever Darren O’Day was receiving plenty of interest throughout the entire league and left last week’s GM Meetings with multiple offers in-hand.

Of course, the Los Angeles Dodgers are among those heavily interested in the submarine-style right-hander – and with good reason. The relief corps is one of that team’s biggest holes outside of the dilemma on whether or not to bring Greinke back long-term.

The Chicago Cubs are in a similar situation.