Breaking down Jake Arrieta’s run of success with the Cubs

When you throw strikes, keep the ball in the ballpark and stay healthy, good things usually follow.

This has been the case for Chicago Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta, who is set to take the ball on Tuesday night against the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field in his second start of the 2015 season. The veteran – still just 29 years old – has been the most consistent – and dominant – arm in the Chicago staff over the past year, and a closer look at some of his numbers make it clear why.

Before we delve into just how good Arrieta has been with Chicago over the past 12 months, it’s important to understand where he came from – and why he struggled – before coming to the Cubs in 2013.

From 2010 to 2013, the right-hander split time between the Baltimore Orioles and the Chicago Cubs – to very mixed results. He quickly became known as a back-and-forth pitcher in the American League East, something Chicago hopes he can avoid moving forward in the NL Central.

After putting together a decent rookie campaign during which he posted a 4.66 ERA in 100-plus innings, Arrieta took a step backwards from there, with his earned run average jumping by half a run in 2011. In his first four years in the league, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) measured as follows: 4.76, 5.34, 4.05 and 4.84.

Simply put, he just didn’t keep runs off the board – for several reasons.

During his time in Baltimore (as well as his first half-season with the Cubs), Arrieta did himself no favors, walking 10.2 percent of the batters he faced. Furthermore, he allowed long-balls 3.1 percent of the time and extra-base hits to just over eight percent of opponents.

Those seem like relatively solid numbers until you take a look at his numbers from 2014 – when he emerged as the ace of a Cubs staff that was left leaderless after the July trade that sent both Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the Oakland Athletics for a package headlined by shortstop prospect Addison Russell.

Here’s a side-by-side comparing Arrieta from 2010 to 2013 to 2014. Granted, it’s a larger sample size and will understandably not mirror his statistics from last year – but the differences in the numbers are pretty stark:

Last season was no-doubt the best season of Arrieta’s big league career. Under pitching coach Chris Bosio, who has helped turn around the careers of several Cubs’ pitchers since assuming his role, saw his right-hander improve his numbers across the board: he struck out almost 10 percent more of the batters he faced, cut his walks and extra-base hits allowed by 30 percent and all the while, allowed roughly 75 percent fewer home runs – despite pitching a career-high 156 2/3 innings in 2014.

Heading into Tuesday’s start at home against Cincinnati, Arrieta is flying high. His first time out, he tossed seven scoreless frames – scattering just three hits and extending his scoreless inning streak to 23 – dating back to late last season. Furthermore, he’s set to take on a Reds team he absolutely dominated in 2014.

More from Cubbies Crib

• Cubs should keep close eye on non-tender candidate Cody Bellinger
• Cubs starting pitching has been thriving on the North Side
• Make no mistake: the Cubs are very much about power hitters
• Cubs are giving pitcher Javier Assad a deserved shot
• Cubs: It’s time to start thinking about potential September call-ups

Arrieta took no-hit bids into the late innings against Cincinnati on two separate occasions last year, limiting Reds hitters to a .145 average and .203 on-base percentage in 20 innings of work spanning three starts. Not only did he keep his opponent off-base, he induced strikeouts at-will, punching out 30 Cincinnati Reds in the process.

That trend was something we saw all season-long, as Arrieta’s swinging-strike percentage jumped from his previous career average of 12.9 percent all the way up to 17.8 percent in 2014. His 9.6 strikeouts-per-nine set a new career-high; and with Cincinnati in town Tuesday, there’s no reason the right-hander won’t keep things rolling early-on in 2015.

Last season, the numbers show that Jake Arrieta was clearly a different pitcher than in years’ past. Now, it’s up to the former fifth-round pick to show that it wasn’t a fluke and he’s ready to be considered a big league ace atop the Chicago Cubs’ starting rotation.

Next: Cubs walk it off against Reds at home Monday