Prospects Are Just That…Prospects

The Chicago Cubs made headlines yesterday as they traded for Matt Garza as part of an eight player deal that also netted the Cubs outfielder Fernando Perez, and a player to be named later-presumably a “high-end” pitching prospect. As more reactions pour in about the Garza trade, a lot of baseball insiders as well as fans are criticizing the Cubs for depleting their farm system. But, as Luke told us yesterday, the Cubs farm system still has an abundance of depth at each position as well as some talented players. The thing that I find to be the most confusing is why are so many people getting upset over the “prospects” that the Cubs traded?

I’m sure the reason most fans are getting upset is because of the hype that surrounded some of the prospects that the Cubs traded for Garza. Chris Archer, who was the Cubs top pitching prospect according to Baseball America, was the key part in the deal. Many fans were anxious to see Archer in Cubs uniform this season as it was believed that he would make his major league debut at some point. While Archer did have impressive numbers throughout his career in the Cubs farm system, it was not until last season till he really emerged as a top prospect. Even with his impressive performance, both Jim Callis of Baseball America and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus believe the Cubs got the better end of the deal, and that Archer is not a “can’t miss” prospect.

The same can be said for Hak-Ju Lee, who was another big reason as to why the Rays decided to accept the Cubs offer.  Many viewed Lee as the future shortstop of the Chicago Cubs, and he was on pace to arrive around the same time as Starlin Castro until he had to undergo Tommy John Surgery. Now, the expectation is that Lee is still one or two years away from making it to the major leagues. Scouts feel that Lee will be a great defensive shortstop, however they don’t think he will be able to hit for average in the majors.

When all is said and done, no one really knows how prospects are going to turn out until they play in the major leagues. All the hype and projections that we hear about prospects are coming from one source, and that is the team that has control of said prospects. Meaning, all the hype on Chris Archer has come from the Chicago Cubs. That is what teams do, they talk high on their prospects, thus giving them the chance to improve their trade value. The projections of how a prospect will turn out are strictly based on their numbers in the minor leagues, success in the minor leagues does not always turn into success in the major leagues.

Even if Archer turns out to be a star, in this line of business you have to give something to get something. Meaning, Jim Hendry did the right thing by trading Archer- an unknown as far as major league baseball experience- for a guy in Garza, who is 27, and has the opportunity to progress into front line starting pitcher for the Chicago Cubs.

Besides, Jim Hendry has shown in the past that he knows what he is doing when he deals away prospects. Last time I checked, neither Felix Pie or Rich Hill are the stars that many believed they were going to be. Do I even need to mention the “future 5-tool star” Corey Patterson? Hendry has illustrated that he has success when he trades his prospects away for high end talent. If you need any proof, just look back at when the Cubs traded for players like Rich Harden, Derrek Lee, and Aramis Ramirez.

Believe it or not, the Cubs did not lose out on the core of their farm system – they still have Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, Chris Carpenter, and Jay Jackson. Not to mention that they also managed to keep the young nucleus on the Cubs together in Starlin Castro, Andrew Cashner, and Tyler Colvin.

So, those who are mad about the Garza trade need to stop criticizing the Cubs for trading prospects. Because in the end, you never truly know what prospect will turn into a star, and what one will turn out to be a bust.