2 reasons to believe this is the year the Cubs win the division and 1 reason not to

Although the Chicago Cubs have started returning to relevance over the past couple of years, they're nearing a decade since they last won the National League Central in a full season. With regards to the shortened 2020 campaign, the Milwaukee Brewers have mostly run the show since 2018, pacing the division every year save for 2019 and 2022, when the Cardinals broke up their streak. It's past time for that to change in 2026.

2025 seemed like the year to make things happen. The Cubs added Kyle Tucker and saw a few young stars, like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, take steps forward, while the Brewers subtracted a star-level player from the equation. Yet, as happened in 2024, when the North Siders stole Craig Counsell while Milwaukee also shipped off their ace, Corbin Burnes, the boys in blue and red got boatraced again, losing the division handily to a Brewers team that won a club-record 97 games.

Regardless, the Cubs made progress, finally making the playoffs again and even winning their first series since 2017 by surpassing the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card round. Expectations are higher — World Series higher — and the team has been bolstered to reflect that. The easiest way to carve a path to the dance, though, is to finally slay the dragon, take the Central, and try to earn a bye to the NLDS. Let's look at three reasons they could finally win their division, as well as a couple of reasons for pessimism in 2026.

2 reasons to believe this is the year the Cubs win the NL Central

The Cubs' pitching staff is much deeper than 2025

In both the rotation and the bullpen, the Cubs got a reminder in 2025 that you can never have enough quality pitching. The relief corps was among the five worst in baseball through April, with a 5.03 ERA and significant struggles from trade acquisition Ryan Pressly. They relied too heavily on Jed Hoyer's tried-and-true method of cobbling together a group of mostly spare parts, and it cost them games early as they worked out who would stick for the long haul. It ultimately took surprises from guys like Brad Keller and Drew Pomeranz, and the emergence of Daniel Palencia as a true fireballing closer, to stabilize things.

The rotation, meanwhile, faced adversity through injuries. Justin Steele had to go under the knife in April for elbow surgery, and most of the starters, from Shota Imanaga to Javier Assad, missed significant time with injuries. The effects of those injuries added up over the season, and without a trade for a proper starter at the deadline, it became too much to bear when Cade Horton finally went down towards the end of the season and couldn't continue his second-half dominance into the postseason.

2026 is built to be different, though. The trade for Edward Cabrera, coming off a career-best 3.53 ERA in 137 2/3 innings, not only adds some serious upside with a hard-throwing starter but also gives the Cubs six obvious above-average options for the rotation once Steele returns from injury. It should soften the blow whenever anyone inevitably has to miss a few games. The Cubs also spent around $30 million to rebuild their bullpen with legitimate veterans like Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, Hunter Harvey, and a returning Caleb Thielbar, while also bringing in reclamation projects like Colin Snider on minor league deals to potentially be the next Keller.

All in, this is a group built to avoid those early-season struggles while still playing for upside, hopefully allowing them to pick up a few of the games they gave away last time around.

Alex Bregman does more than just replace Kyle Tucker

Much has been said about the arrival of Alex Bregman, the capstone piece to Hoyer's best offseason as Cubs president and the most expensive player in team history in terms of AAV. The former MVP rounds out an infield that was already quite effective in 2025, with 11.5 WAR from its returning members. He'll effectively replace Kyle Tucker, and while projections vary on what he'll provide offensively, he's still expected to be another above-average bat and a strong glove.

Yet, the trait everyone has been focused on is his leadership. From the moment he signed, there were reports of him wanting to get to know the club's development system and connecting with the young stars in Chicago. Crow-Armstrong, in particular, was quick to praise Bregman for reaching out and engaging with him on his goals and expressing confidence in him for the upcoming season. Boston, too, raved about his impact on the entire organization during his year playing at Fenway, with top prospect Roman Anthony opening up about how much playing with Bregman helped him grow as a player.

Maybe the numbers don't match up, but it's hard to deny how perfect a fit Bregman is for this team in this moment - both on and off the field.

1 reason to think the Cubs might come up short yet again

The NL Central has made the Cubs' path harder

Alas, in a year where the Cubs armed up, the Central made moves too. The Brewers did what they've been doing, trading another star player in Freddy Peralta for another haul of young talent to keep the cycle going. This time, they brought in former top-50 Mets pitching prospect Brandon Sproat and MLB Pipeline's current #51 overall prospect, Jett Williams, both of whom have real potential to be a thorn in fans' sides for years to come.

ZiPS rightly recognizes the Brewers as the biggest threat to the Cubs at a projected 86 wins to their 87, even after the Peralta trade and shipping off Caleb Durbin. However, at least their offseason signings were more underwhelming overall. That can't be said for the Pirates, though, who loaded up on offense with a trade for slugging second baseman Brandon Lowe and the addition of free agents Ryan O'Hearn and Marcell Ozuna. Uber prospect Konnor Griffin is also just on the horizon to further bolster a group that already features Bryan Reynolds and O'Neil Cruz.

With a rotation that features reigning Cy Young winner Paul Skenes alongside other talented arms, the Pirates don't need that much firepower with the bats to start making noise. It's why FanSided's Robert Murray and other insiders are high on what Pittsburgh has cooking by finally addressing their biggest weakness. They might not be ready to challenge for the Central yet, but they could make it a harder path for the Cubs. Not to be lost in the shuffle, the Reds also have plenty of young talent that could pop and brought back a Chicago boogeyman in Eugenio Suarez, coming off a 49-home run season.

For a Cubs team that still has a lot to prove, from a rotation lacking a clear ace despite the depth and a lineup that needs its young stars to shine, the rest of the division is creeping up on them. The Brewers are the Brewers and are always a threat to do something unexpected, but the greater potential of the Pirates and Reds compared to last season is nothing to scoff at.