Will the Michael Arias trade come back to haunt the Cubs like other recent missteps?

The Chicago Cubs have traded minor league right-hander Michael Arias to the New York Yankees to make room on the 40-man roster for Colin Rea. This isn't the first high-upside reliever the team has parted ways with in recent years, giving the move a similar and uneasy feeling.

Arias has great upside as a high-leverage reliever. The Cubs converted him to a pitcher when they acquired him in 2021 and he broke out in 2023 with 110 strikeouts over 81.1 innings pitched. His fastball averages in the mid-90s and can reach 99 MPH. Like many other young Cubs arms, like Luke Little and Daniel Palencia, Arias' main problem is control. He issued 48 free passes in 2024, which inflated his ERA (4.77) and WHIP (1.86).

The control issues aside, it's a head-scratcher why the team decided to designate him for assignment. Arias seems close to figuring out how to pitch effectively. His secondary offerings have the potential to be above-average pitches and he is still only 23 years old. There's plenty of time for him to figure things out, and the Cubs need more late-inning bullpen arms.

The frustrating thing is that there were other options. Gavin Hollowell is still on the 40-man roster and seemed like the most likely DFA candidate. He is four years older than Arias, only has one minor league option remaining and has not been great in his limited time in the Majors (6.00 ERA in 33 games). Admittedly, all but one of those games were while Hollowell was with the Rockies and his minor league numbers are much better across the board. Still, I can't help but feel that Arias was the wrong guy to cut loose.

Will the Michael Arias trade bite the Cubs?

The hope is that Arias doesn't fall into a bucket of relief pitchers that the Cubs have jettisoned in recent years, only to emerge as valuable arms while the Cubs search for bullpen strength. Jeremiah Estrada is a guy that comes to mind. At the end of the 2023 season, the Cubs were clearing 40-man space and tried to sneak the hard-throwing reliever through outright waivers to retain him on a minor league deal. But he was claimed by the San Diego Padres and proceeded to pitch lights out for them in 2024. In 62 games, Estrada struck out 94 batters with a 2.95 ERA and contributed to an elite Padres bullpen. Meanwhile, the Cubs bullpen suffered an early season implosion and blew 26 saves.

It was a similar story to Manuel Rodriguez. In 2022, the Cubs traded Rodriguez - yet another young reliever with upper-90s velocity - to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for bonus pool cash and a guy who's not even in the Cubs system anymore (Josh Roberson). Rodriguez made 40 appearances out of Tampa Bay's bullpen in 2024 with a 2.15 ERA, 11 holds, and 34 strikeouts.

Since the Rays are experts at transforming other teams' discarded pitchers, Hunter Bigge seems likely to join this list as well. The Cubs did not dump him the same way they did Arias and Rodriguez, as he was a throw-in for the Isaac Paredes trade. It's too early to judge, but the 26-year-old looks destined to be an important cog of the Rays bullpen with the ability to locate his 100 MPH fastball.

Hopefully adding Tyler Zombro to their pitching evaluation/acquisition team will help the Cubs avoid passing up on these potentially game-changing arms. A full year's consistency is something that's eluded Chicago bullpens of late - and these young arms could help. It would be a shame if Arias became the latest example of this annoying trend but only time will tell.