Why Cubs fans should expect a lot of one-year deals from Jed Hoyer this offseason

After a disappointing playoff exit at the hands of the rival Milwaukee Brewers, the last thing Chicago Cubs fans want to hear is that the team won't be hyper-aggressive this offseason.

Indeed, despite running a $206 million payroll in 2025 that dwarfed all other NL Central participants, the Cubs slashed their roster spending by more than $20 million from 2024, and could engage in similar frugal activities this winter.

That's all because of an impending lockout that is all but sure to take place next December, when the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires. ESPN's Jeff Passan cited the primary concern being the owners' desire to implement a salary cap, which he says the players perceive as a "declaration of war."

You don't need to have a degree in economics to know that's not the kind of environment you want to be investing long-term dollars in.

Kyle Tucker's looming free agency stands out as the major big-money decision in Chicago this offseason, though other holes on the roster (more starting pitching!) will demand attention as well.

Regardless of how they attack those problems, the Cubs are still built to be competitive next year, and they (hopefully) won't simply sit on their hands and watch the Brewers run away with the division again. There will be additions made to the roster—they'll just mostly come in the form of one-year deals.

Majority of Cubs' veteran core set to be free agents in 2026

Lest you believe otherwise, this is a reality the front office has been preparing for since the last CBA was ratified. Just take a look at their current payroll breakdown; a majority of their veterans are set to become free agents this year or next year.

Cubs players set to become free agents after 2026 season
C Carson Kelly
C Reese McGuire
2B Nico Hoerner
LF Ian Happ
RF Seiya Suzuki
SP Jameson Taillon
SP Matthew Boyd (mutual option)

That list doesn't even include players with options for next season, like Shota Imanaga, Colin Rea, Andrew Kittredge, and Justin Turner. On top of the gaggle of free agents they have set to hit the market this winter -- Tucker, Aaron Civale, Willi Castro, and practically the entire bullpen -- it's clear that Jed Hoyer has built this team with the 2027 lockout in mind.

There's no reason to expect that mentality to change now. There's obviously going to be cash to spend (especially with all of that money coming off the backs after next season), but the Cubs aren't going to dig themselves into a hole with an expensive roster that could violate some sort of salary cap, à la the New Orleans Saints.

Whether or not Hoyer can build a championship-caliber team in 2026 with this roster sans Tucker and a bunch of one-year contracts remains to be seen, but Cubs fans should be wary of getting their hopes too high this winter.