Who's in? Who's out? Breaking down the Cubs' bullpen 'circle of trust' two weeks in

The Chicago Cubs are fresh off another series win, this one a big one against the expected juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers. However, it’s still early enough in the season that Craig Counsell’s boys could continue on a roll or things could take a very ugly turn. 

With Justin Steele on the shelf for the rest of the season, the bullpen is almost certainly going to be even more important. They showed up and showed out on Sunday night, but there are still some real questions as to who is in the “circle of trust.”

For now, the Chicago Cubs have a rather small group of relievers who are in that “circle of trust.” It’s going to need to get bigger in a hurry if the club wants to keep rolling along the way they have. 

Relievers who are in the Chicago Cubs’ circle of trust

Porter Hodge

There may not be a single Cubs reliever who has cemented his role in the circle of trust more completely than Porte Hodge has at this point. He’s coming off a 2024 big league debut where he posted a 1.88 earned run average and logged 9 saves in 39 outings. 

He’s followed that up throwing some serious heat and posting a 2.25 ERA in 8 outings so far this year. His FIP is just 1.38 so he’s one of those relievers who has actually been a bit unlucky despite an overall stellar Cubbie defense this year. He’s also logged 11 Ks in 8 innings pitched and appears headed to the closer’s role.

Brad Keller

Keller is a newcomer to the Chicago Cubs bullpen but he’s ingratiated himself quickly. He struggled in his first outing for his new club, allowing 4 hits and 2 ERs in 2 innings against Arizona, but he’s righted the ship since then.

Keller has since gone 4.1 innings and hasn’t allowed a run. He’s also struck out 4 in those outings. That includes 1.1 innings of shutout ball to help clinch the most recent series against the Dodgers. He might not be in Crag Counsell’s circle of trust, considering he went a week between appearances, but he should be.

Julian Merryweather

Merryweather struggled in 2024 but he appears to be back to form so far this season. His hard hit rate according to Baseball Savant is one of the best of his career and is way down from 2024. 

He had one bad outing, against the Texas Rangers, but in the rest of his appearances, he’s allowed just two baserunners in five innings. When the bullpen solidifies itself a bit more, he could be a top setup man or even move into the closer role if needed.

Colin Rea

I included Colin Rea on this list even though it appears he’s making the move to the rotation, since he did start the year in the pen. He was one of the more controversial signings in the offseason among Cubs fans because he simply wasn’t all that good last year.

Before Justin Steele went down and he made the Sunday start against L.A., Rea was doing the things he was brought in to do. He was the long reliever who threw 3 scoreless innings against the A’s and 2 scoreless innings against the Rangers.

Against the Dodgers, he went 3.2 innings, allowing 1 run and striking out 5. Most impressively, he touched 96 on the radar gun a few times, showing velocity he hadn’t earlier in the season. Should Chicago go out and get another starter and move Rea back to the pen, it would seem he could be an asset there.

Relievers who are out of the Chicago Cubs’ circle of trust

Eli Morgan

Eli Morgan was a much heralded pickup this offseason. A rarity in the Jed Hoyer era that he wasn’t a dumpster dive in the bullpen. Unfortunately, he hasn’t gotten many plaudits since the season started.

Most of his problems came in one game, against the Diamondbacks, when he allowed 6 runs, 6 hits, a walk, and a hit batter in 0.2 innings. He’s righted the ship a bit since then, but he’s still shown some struggles finding the strike zone. Considering he posted a 1.93 ERA in 2024, he could and hopefully will find the circle of trust at some point this year, but he’s not there yet.

Nate Pearson

There may be no Chicago Cubs reliever farther away from the circle of trust than Nate Pearson. Because of his ability to touch 100 on the speed gun, he’s going to get a long leash as far as being on the major league roster. But he’s only got 5 strikeouts in 8.1 innings. That’s quite bad for someone with his velocity.

Pearson has spent time alternating between being too hittable and having no command so far this season. He’s had two games where he walked multiple batters and two games where he allowed multiple hits. He’s also got one game where he did both. His 6.72 FIP is the worst on the team.

Ryan Pressly

Despite being the Cubs’ closer, he’s contending with Pearson for the least trusted member of the bullpen. Despite being 4-for-4 in save opportunities, Pressly has struggled with missing bats, finding the strike zone, and allowing hits.

In 8 innings, he’s walked 6, allowed 11 hits and 3 earned runs. He’s also only struck out 3 batters. He did have a decent outing against the Dodgers on Sunday, notching his third strikeout, but he’s stil pretty far away from being trusted by Cubs fans.

Ethan Roberts

As of now, the only reason Roberts isn’t in the circle of trust is because he hasn’t been up long enough. Since making his first appearance on April 9, he’s logged 2.2 innings pitched and hasn’t allowed a run. 

He has allowed 3 hits but he’s also struck out 3 batters. He was the pitcher of record in the win over the Dodgers on Sunday, not allowing a baserunner in 0.2 innings. It will be interesting to see how and when he’s used the rest of the season.

Caleb Thielbar

Like many of the relievers not yet in the circle of trust, Thielbar is out of it because he’s not missing enough bats and not finding the strike zone enough. He leads Chicago Cubs relievers in walks with 5 in just 5.2 innings. He’s also allowed 3 hits and 4 earned runs. So far, he’s looked like he has no idea where his pitches are going, and that’s a problem, especially since he’s the lefty option out of the pen.