Where does the Cubs' Matt Shaw fall in a ranking of NL Central third basemen?

I didn't realize how weak the third base position was in the National League Central until digging in for this piece. As of right now, Nolan Arenado is still a Cardinal and remains the best third baseman in the division. There's almost no chance he'll a remain in St. Louis all year - if he even makes it to Opening Day without being traded. Every team in the division, including the Chicago Cubs, will enter the 2025 season with a question mark at third. Let's dive in.

1. Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals

Arenado is still a good player - maybe not quite worth his contract but still the best third baseman in the NL Central for now. Fielding and putting the ball in play continue to be his main strengths. The issue is that his power has really gone downhill the last two season, mainly due to a marked decrease in launch angle (from 21 to 16 degrees in three years). Wherever Arenado goes, he will be a plus WAR player as he continues his march to the Hall of Fame.

Who plays third after an Areando trade? Maybe Brendan Donovan? Maybe Thomas Saggese? Regardless, the Cardinals are going to struggle this year as they start their rebuild before handing things over to Chaim Bloom next winter and I'm going to enjoy every minute of it.

2. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates

I really want Ke'Bryan Hayes to be good. He is an all-world fielder: 99th percentile according to StatCast in 2023 due to his incredible range. We've seen him make those remarkable plays down the line against the Cubs, but Charlie Hayes' son is fantastic pretty much across the board in the field. He won a Gold Glove in 2023 and will probably be the NL favorite heading into 2025 healthy.

Hayes hasn't been immensely succesful at the plate yet though. He was above average in 2023 but regressed mightily in last season. He's good at making contact, which leads to low K and whiff rates but his on-base skills are not equivalent. Hayes will have to improve there or in his slugging to make an All-Star team. If he repeats his .573 OPS from 2023, Hayes is really going to be in trouble. Even all-world defensive players don't maintain starting positions struggling that much at the plate.

3. Matt Shaw

Cubs rookie Matt Shaw is going to get a ton of coverage over the next couple of months, but he's the real deal. In roughly a full season of games in the minors (159), the University of Maryland product has a .906 OPS and 46 stolen bases. While he's new to third base, Shaw has looked pretty decent according to reports (quality defensive metrics really aren't available to fans for minor leaguers). I think I'd prefer him at second, but Shaw belongs in the big leagues and third base is the position Jed Hoyer and team have opened for him.

Shaw generates a ton of power out of his 5'9 frame and doesn't really have any distinct holes in his game in the minors. He's about league average in strikeout rate, takes his walks and hits to all fields. I anticipate him being able to hit immediately. Third base might be a challenge for a bit at the big league level but Cubs fans have watched Christopher Morel the last three years. We will be fine. Shaw has a real shot at being the best third baseman in the division by May, even if he can just be a league average defender.

4. Noelvi Marte, Reds

With the addition of Gavin Lux (another infielder - really Reds?), Cincinnati has an absurd glut of infielders on their rosters again. They could conceivably go in a multitude of different directions at the hot corner, but let's operate under the assumption that Noelvi Marte will open the season at third.

In what seems like a theme so far in our rankings, Marte is a former top prospect turned question mark. He hit extremely well in his cup of coffee in 2023 but really struggled in an injury-riddled 2024 campaign that started late due to a PED suspension. It's almost pointless trying to read too much into a 365 at-bat sample size spread across two seasons, but Marte's highest-graded tool coming up was his power and that has not yet manifested against Major League pitching. A 49 OPS+ and -1.8 WAR in only 66 games in 2024 are impressively low numbers. Marte was essentially the least valuable player in the league when he was playing as a result of both his offense and defense.

The former Mariners farmhand still has a ton of talent; he has a cannon for an arm that should hypothetically translate to third base, carries significant value on the basepaths and has a history of destroying minor league pitching. Despite that, Marte probably doesn't have a ton of rope left when the Reds have so many options available to them.

5. Oliver Dunn, Brewers

The Brewers still scare me in the division race despite losing some key pieces the last few years, including Willy Adames this winter via free agency. That being said, their options at third base are hardly horror move-esque. Similar to a lot of these teams, the Brewers could go a multitude of directions but Dunn is the clubhouse leader right now.

Dunn was drafted by the Yankees, selected by the Phillies in the Rule 5 draft and then traded to the Brewers. Despite the frequent changes of scenery and relatively humble prospect status, Dunn has hit and hit and hit in the minor leagues. He also has close to elite speed (the Brewers are going to be a real problem for Miguel Amaya). However, Dunn posted a .598 OPS over 100 plate appearances and doesn't have Marte's pedigree. He's rated 29th in Fangraphs third basemen projections and last in ours.