Up-and-down Cubs' playoff odds trending sharply in the right direction again

Nobody can say the 2026 Chicago Cubs season hasn't been interesting. Two 10-game win streaks, a 10-game losing streak and, heading into Fourth of July weekend, a 9-1 stretch that has the team flying high just one month shy of the MLB trade deadline.

Of course, you wish that 9-1 stretch would've helped the Cubs gain more ground on the Brewers, but their I-94 rival went 8-2 over that same span. Pete Crow-Armstrong's historic June earned him NL Player of the Month honors and a resurgent Dansby Swanson made history (many times over) in the waning days of the month.

The pitching staff still needs to get back to full strength - or, as close as possible given the season-ending injuries it's already endured - and the hope is Jed Hoyer pushes his chips in at the deadline, bolstering both the bullpen and rotation. The onus is now on the team to keep up its recent play into July, forcing the front office's hand in the process.

Insane finish to June has the Cubs flying high - but questions remain

The Cubs' play in June (16-10 record), buoyed by a scorching-hot close to the month, pushed the team's playoff odds up to 77.7 percent - a mark not seen since mid-May. Things bottomed out in early June, with FanGraphs giving Chicago a roughly one-in-three shot at that point, but the narrative has (once again) shifted dramatically for Craig Counsell's ballclub.

Milwaukee is still the toast of the Central (98.2 percent playoff odds) and Chicago still has just the fifth-best playoff chances in the National League (trailing LAD, MIL, ATL and PHI) - but it's a major shift for a team that looked like it was imploding just weeks ago.

There's no debate over what will decide the Cubs' 2026 fate. It's pitching. Hoyer can deliver some relief with big moves leading up to the deadline, but still needs to find some way of avoiding the injury bug that was a constant issue in the first half. Stacking another series win to the pile against St. Louis this weekend wouldn't hurt matters, either, but fans can at least take solace in the fact that, for now, things are trending up in Wrigleyville.

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