Trevor Rogers looks like perfect Cubs fit until Orioles' qualifying offer enters the picture

The Chicago Cubs don't just have a need for pitching this offseason, they have a need for a specific kind of pitcher. The Cubs will be in search of pitchers who can keep the ball on the ground and miss bats. Extra points to a pitcher who also has velocity, something the Cubs have largely lacked in recent years.

With each member from their starting rotation at the end of the season free agents, the Cubs are in a unique position this offseason. Justin Steele and Edward Cabrera would likely be expected to take up roles in the rotation, but it would seem that a majority of the team's 2027 rotation will be external additions made this offseason. Unless, of course, there's a return of someone like Clay Holmes or David Peterson.

That said, the expectation should be for the Cubs to turn over many stones in free agency. One of those stones could be Baltimore Orioles' starting pitcher Trevor Rogers. Rogers is a free-agent and fits the profile of the type of pitcher the Cubs should prefer this winter.

After posting a 1.81 ERA through 18 starts with the Orioles in 2025, there was some lofty expectations for Rogers this season. Fitting the trend in Baltimore, 2026 was a disappointment for the 28-year-old starting pitcher. He posted a 4.03 ERA across 30 starts, but that is more representative of the misfortune that found him. His FIP was 3.45, he struck out over 22% of the hitters he faced, and walked under 6%.

Going back to what the Cubs will be looking for this year, Rogers fits the profile of someone who keeps the ball on the ground. You won't see that in his 2026, considering the 38.3% groundball rate he had, but that number was over 46% in each of the three seasons before that.

Orioles could make Cubs think twice about pursuing one of their best free agent fits

While Rogers should fall into the group of starting pitchers within the Cubs' preferred price range this offseason, there's the issue of the qualifying offer. Given the need the Orioles have for pitching this offseason, it would seem likely they attach the qualifying offer to his free agency.

While the Cubs weren't afraid of free agents with the qualifying offer attached last winter, there might be some second-guessing this offseason. Mostly becuase the penalties surrounding signing a player with a qualifying offer attached could be more drastic under the new CBA. That figures to muddy the waters for the Cubs if they are going to be interested in Rogers this winter.

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