As the Kansas City Royals snatched a victory from the New York Yankees in the Bronx to even the ALDS at one game apiece, all eyes were on Aaron Judge, who went 1-for-3 on Monday with a strikeout and a walk in the loss.
As prolific of a hitter as Judge is, that regular-season dominance has never translated to October. A He carries a career .208/.311/.449 slash line in more than 200 postseason at-bats, paling compared to his regular-season line of .288/.406/.604 - good for an OPS north of 1.000. Even worse? Judge now holds the highest postseason strikeout rate of any hitter with at least 200 postseason plate appearances.
We're not here to talk about Judge, the highest-paid player on the Yankees roster. Instead, we're focusing on the third name on that list and the highest-paid Cubs player in 2024, Cody Bellinger, whose opt-out decision will shape how Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins approach the upcoming offseason.
In an extensive postseason career as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers, including trips to three World Series, Bellinger has punched out in just under one-third of his plate appearances. His postseason OPS checks in more than 100 points below Judge, weighed down by a measly .285 October OBP in 267 PAs.
In their latest podcast episode, Cubs beat writers Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney expressed the belief that Bellinger will, indeed, opt out of the final two years of the deal he signed with Chicago last winter. Scott Boras offered a sneak peek of his sales pitch in recent weeks, laying blame for Bellinger's suppressed offensive output on conditions at Wrigley Field - something we also heard in Jed Hoyer's end-of-season press conference.
But whether or not Bellinger opts out is irrelevant in this discussion. The point here is, given Bellinger's lackluster October track record, even if he returns to the Cubs in 2025, this is still a team that needs to add a go-to offensive weapon, capable of being a major difference-maker both in the regular season and the playoffs.
The obvious name that comes to mind in light of his recent Wild Card Round heroics is Pete Alonso, the longtime Mets slugger who will hit the open market at the end of the postseason. He could provide the badly-needed power the Cubs have lacked in recent years, deepening a lineup that already features several potent weapons in guys like Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki.
Even if Bellinger leaves, it's no sure thing Hoyer looks for such a weapon. Sharma and Mooney pointed out that the front office may, instead, look to leave runway for top prospects like Owen Caissie to settle in at the big-league level. That's a tough sell, especially for a team that's expected to win in 2025, but could very well be the approach the Cubs take given how prospect-focused the organization has been under Hoyer's leadership.