As they look to fill a holiday week with content as the hot stove heats up, the fine folks over at MLB Network cooked up a hypothetical trade between the Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays that's left fans in the Windy City sharply divided.
The trade sees the Cubs send Cody Bellinger, Michael Busch and Cade Horton to Toronto in exchange for four-time All-Star and former AL MVP Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and right-hander Kevin Gausman, who has two years and $46 million remaining on the five-year, $110 deal he signed with the Blue Jays back in 2021.
I'll let you come to your own conclusion about the trade - but first, at least let me give you the key info. Dollars, as we are all well aware, are a big piece of this: in Guerrero Jr. and Gausman, the Cubs would take on an estimated $52 million based on projections from Spotrac. Meanwhile, the Jays take on Bellinger's contract - a savings of $27.5 million this year - and Busch and Horton are both still in pre-arbitration, totaling about $1.5 million.
If you're not a math whiz - that's approximately $24.5 in 2025 salary coming over to Chicago in the deal - but with $50+ million left before hitting the first CBT threshold, that shouldn't be an issue.
To pull off a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. trade, the Chicago Cubs would have to come off some top-end talent - including Cody Bellinger
Now, looking at the players themselves. Look, I know a lot of fans aren't going to want to see a prospect like Cade Horton included here - but that's what it's going to take to land the type of player this Cubs team lacks. Even with just one year of control left, Guerrero Jr. is one of the biggest stars in the game - and he's not going to come cheap.
Being able to unload Bellinger's contract helps a lot - and almost cancels out taking on Guerrero's salary in 2025. Gausman slots into the rotation behind Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon nicely, but he definitely isn't the impact power arm the team hopes to add. Last year, he wasn't even a 1.0 bWAR pitcher - but moving that money is a key piece of this deal working if you're Toronto (especially if they want to shock the baseball world and sign Juan Soto).
Losing Busch after an impressive rookie showing stings - but you can swap in Guerrero Jr. at first, move Seiya Suzuki back to right field and look to add another bat to DH. The Cubs haven't had a player of this caliber in the middle of the lineup since peak Kris Bryant days - and that was nearly a decade ago.
The elephant in the room, of course, is you run the risk of Guerrero leaving after 2025 when he hits free agency. Him signing an extension prior to that seems very unlikely - which, in the end, probably kills this deal if you're Jed Hoyer. He's all about long-term, sustained success (or so we've been told), so don't count on the Cubs pushing their chips in on a rental and a mid-rotation starter.