This overlooked prospect seems poised for a Cubs spring training breakout

There are less than two weeks until Chicago Cubs pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Although many players have arrived early to begin preparations for the marathon that is the MLB season, February 11 marks the first official step toward the return of another baseball season. With it comes a chance not just for the team to warm up, but for prospects to make an impression before heading down to work in their respective minor league affiliate.

This year, the Cubs should have a few key names looking to make cases for future call-ups or even to win a roster spot. All eyes will be on top pitching farmhand and top-100 prospect Jaxon Wiggins to see how he performs after making the jump to Triple-A last year. Kevin Alcantara will also be looking to justify his position as part of the team's bench from the get-go rather than starting in Iowa. The precipitous rise of Jonathon Long, last year's Cubs Minor League Player of the Year, should also garner plenty of attention for the slugging first baseman.

One prospect unlikely to be high on anyone's watch list, however, is right-handed starter Connor Noland. The 26-year-old was drafted in the ninth round back in 2022 and has quickly risen through the minors since, just finishing his first full year at Triple-A. As a pitcher who only throws around 90-92 MPH and is ranked 20th overall in the system by MLB Pipeline, behind, among other pitchers, Grant Kipp, Dominick Reid, and Kaleb Wing, he hasn't garnered a ton of buzz to this point despite consistent improvement each year.

And yet, there's reason to believe he can turn some heads in spring training after being added to the 40-man roster this offseason. Again, Noland has shown marked improvement each year in the Cubs organization, going from a 5.29 ERA and 5.18 FIP in 47 2/3 innings at Iowa in 2024 to an above league-average 4.07 ERA and 4.37 FIP in 132 2/3 innings in 2025. The big thing for him last year was being able to lower his home run rate at the highest level of the minors by a full point to 0.89 HR/9 while also raising his ground ball rate to 48.1 percent.

His walk rate did tick up notably to 3.73 BB/9, which marked his highest by far at any level. However, that feels like an aberration that, hopefully, is addressed coming into 2026. If he can fix that issue, he has the tools to be an effective pitcher. The fastball's lack of velocity is somewhat made up for by Noland having two very solid breaking pitches in a 60-grade slider and curveball that he can mix efficiently among his six total offerings. They've helped him rise to become the most consistent Iowa starter last year despite his walks, and they're part of the reason why other prospect evaluators feel more confident in an eventual big league future.

Connor Noland has the makings of a great Cubs depth starter

A soft-tosser known for consistency more than domination doesn't scream Spring Training breakout in the traditional sense, but it's believable for Noland given his trajectory. His breaking pitches seem to keep getting better as he adds more spin, with his slider reaching around 2900 RPMs. That's in the same realm as guys like Corbin Burnes and Bryan Abreu. A version of him with an improved walk rate would easily make a compelling case as a back-end starter/swing man option for the Cubs, not unlike Javier Assad before him. His craftiness and sheer variety of pitches are enough to believe he could go on a nice run in Mesa that gets the team more seriously thinking about him as a call-up as soon as this season.

Right now, Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks are ahead of Noland as the obvious next arms in line to fill in for injuries or whatever Craig Counsell needs. It would not be a shock to see the righty start making a case for himself as a next man up, though. He's demonstrated time and again that he can find consistent success, and with a stellar Cubs defense behind him, he may be just fine at the highest level. It's not sexy to peg him as the potential next Assad or Colin Rea, but in an era where pitching is so valuable, that role is still quite coveted in the big leagues.