This Cubs-Giants' Robbie Ray trade package could save Chicago's postseason hopes

It's no secret that the Chicago Cubs badly need starting pitching help. While they've played solidly enough coming out of the All-Star break and still remain in a strong position in the NL Wild Card race, the Cubs are lagging behind the Brewers in the NL Central and are looking all but certain to need to overcome a three-game Wild Card set come October if they manage to make the postseason. That'll require better pitching, especially with Jameson Taillon's continued struggles.

Fortunately, the trade deadline is still looming in the distance. That means there's still time for Jed Hoyer and his front office to find help from outside the organization. Among all the likely sellers in the league, few are more obvious at the moment than the Giants.

When looking at the surface-level stats, it's hard to imagine a better fit for the Cubs than Robbie Ray. The former Cy Young award winner has a 3.33 ERA in 20 appearances for San Francisco this year, his lowest since capturing the aforementioned award with the Blue Jays back in 2021. He's been even better lately, sporting a 1.90 ERA and 3.39 FIP since May 31.

Robbie Ray is not quite as impressive as his results would suggest

All of that might indicate that Ray is the sort of impact starting pitching the Cubs need headed into the stretch run, but a closer look at his peripherals reveals red flags abound. Ray's peripherals are a disaster this year, as he's carrying a 11.6% walk rate against a 20.6% strikeout rate on the year. That leaves him with a 4.59 FIP. Even in his recent strong stretch, a 4.79 xFIP suggests he may have simply been benefited from good fortune rather than true effectiveness.

The regression indicators are all over the map for Ray, who is fast approaching his 35th birthday and is making a hefty $25 million this year. All of that indicates that Ray is unlikely to be the sort of impact playoff starter Cubs fans might be hoping for, but that doesn't mean he can't be useful. The Cubs' pitching staff is in dire enough straits that even average numbers from Ray going forward would be appreciated, and USA Today's Bob Nightengale recently described him as a "perfect fit" for the Cubs.

That seems like a stretch, but Ray's flaws figure to make him more affordable than other arms on the market. As much as we'd all like to see the Cubs pursue Tarik Skubal, it's anyone's guess if Hoyer would actually pay that steep of a price for a rental. Ray, by contrast, shouldn't cost an arm and a leg in prospects. That's especially true if Chicago is willing to take on most or all of the remaining salary left on his contract, which figures to pay him around $9 million for the rest of this season.

One player the Cubs could be willing to part with in a deal for Ray is outfielder Kevin Alcantara. Acquired as the centerpiece of the trade return for Anthony Rizzo back in the day, Alcantara hasn't been able to break through at the big league level with the Cubs and is staring down the end of his option years after the 2026 campaign. That puts pressure on Chicago to get value for him while they can, and bringing in a veteran starter like Ray with Alcantara would be a solid move.

For the Giants, Alcantara would provide a much-needed right-handed bat for their outfield mix. Center fielder Drew Gilbert has shown no ability to hit lefties so far, and even Jung Hoo Lee has had his own platoon woes in the past. Alcantara needs polish, but his strong defense would be a good fit in Oracle Park, and with Harrison Bader struggling through injuries and ineffectiveness this year that could be enough to make him an upgrade in the short-term on top of the longer-term upside.

Of course, teams often want to add pitching to their system when surrendering pitching from the big league roster, so the Cubs would likely need to offer a secondary piece on top of Alcantara. A flier on someone like right-hander Nazier Mule could make sense for both sides. Mule was a fourth-round pick by the Cubs back in 2022, and since then injuries have mostly relegated him to the lower minors.

Despite those flaws, Mule has flashed big time stuff in the past. Even if his most likely path to the majors at this point is as a reliever, it's possible a new organization could help him get healthy and rise through the ranks to become a dominant one fairly quickly. Given Ray's assortment of red flags, a big league ready outfielder and a high upside pitching flier would be a solid return for the Giants. Meanwhile, securing a much-needed veteran for the Cubs rotation makes the deal a win/win.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow