These numbers could be a huge red flag for Javier Assad heading into 2025

Early on in the year, Javier Assad pitched like an ace alongside Shota Imanaga as the Chicago Cubs did their best to weather the Opening Night loss of Justin Steele. In his first 12 starts, the right-hander worked to a 2.27 ERA and limited opponents to a .211 batting average.

But as the season wore on and as Assad pushed through the heaviest workload of his career, he became less and less effective. A 4.38 ERA in his final dozen starts, including a bloated 6.86 ERA in September and October, did little to inspire confidence in Assad as a member of the rotation next season.

Those numbers can be explained. Again, after never throwing more than 116 innings in his professional career, Assad hit 147 innings in 2024 - some wear and tear is expected at that point. The bigger concern comes in his home/road splits, which could be cause for concern if the team is penciling him into the 2025 starting rotation.

Much has been made about the Wrigley Field effect this season, namely in its impact on a Cubs offense that failed to produce for nearly two straight months. But little, as Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma pointed out on their latest podcast episode, has been made of its effect on Chicago pitchers - and few have more dramatic home/road splits than Assad.

In 14 home starts, Assad pitched to a 2.47 ERA and 1.370 WHIP. Those are legitimate numbers and had he maintained them away from Wrigley, he'd have likely joined Imanaga as an All-Star. But on the road, the 27-year-old was a completely different pitcher, with a 4.87 ERA and 1.429 WHIP - numbers more indicative of a fringe swingman than a guy you're locking into your starting mix next year.

This information, which the Cubs have surely been aware of and are factoring into their offseason approach, makes their pursuit of at least one, if not multiple, proven starting pitchers all the more important. The team's margin for error, especially if they're unable to add a major offensive piece, is narrow - so padding the rotation with proven commodities is a 'must' for Jed Hoyer and the front office.