The one player who could define Cubs' entire season starts with Opening Day

If nothing else, ahead of Opening Day, there's no question that the Chicago Cubs have raised the floor of expectations entering the 2026 regular season. They reached the playoffs in 2025, but after being eliminated by the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS, it seems that Jed Hoyer and Co. spent the offseason learning from that shortcoming.

That was the reason why Hoyer slightly deviated from his previous blueprint for building the bullpen back up. He spent nearly $30 million on a handful of veterans that enter the season with clear expectations of being out-getters for Craig Counsell.

The trade for Edward Cabrera, assuming health, should be the response to the Cubs running out of capable starting pitching options last October. It also helps that Justin Steele will be back in the rotation by the beginning of June.

In a separate category is Alex Bregman. For the first time since Hoyer has been the leading voice in the front office, the Cubs outbid the competition for a top free agent. On the field, Bregman is expected to stabilize the starting lineup after the departure of Kyle Tucker. Off the field, Bregman is expected to emerge as the leader in the clubhouse for the next five years. Combining those two factors is the reason why the Cubs shelled out $175 million (with some deferrals) to the All-Star third baseman this winter.

Yes, the Cubs' aggressive offseason raised expectations for Opening Day, but the focus will be on Pete Crow-Armstrong.

For as great as the offseason was, the biggest question facing the Cubs could be what defines the entire season. What version of Pete Crow-Armstrong will the Cubs be getting in 2026?

During the first half of 2025, Crow-Armstrong was a clear MVP candidate and stole the spotlight away from Tucker. He slashed .265/.302/.544 with 25 home runs and a 131 wRC+.

Things took a dramatic turn during the final two months of the regular season. Crow-Armstrong's wRC+ fell to 72 while with a slash line of .216/.262/.372. The power also disappeared from his approach, hitting only 5 home runs.

By the end of the season, for a player who plays with such emotion, it was clear that Crow-Armstrong was broken.

If the Cubs are going to prove that the playoff loss to the Brewers last October was just a temporary setback to them finally taking back the National League Central, it starts with Crow-Armstrong, and it starts on Opening Day. Crow-Armstrong doesn't have to perform at the MVP pace he was on during the early months of 2025, but he certainly has to be better than he was at the end of the Cubs' offseason work is actually going to pay off.