The early season hero of Cubs' offense has quietly come back to earth at the plate

Look, don't take this as any sort of knock agianst Carson Kelly. The 30-year-old veteran backstop has been a massive part of the Chicago Cubs' success to this point, already worth 1.7 bWAR, thanks to an eye-popping 179 OPS+ through 125 trips to the plate.

Kelly has posted chase, strikeout and walk rates near the top of the league - and it's helped him find pitches he can punish and do damage. There's a lot of season left, but his .574 slugging percentage would clear his current career-high by nearly 100 points.

He's been an unexpected surprise - albeit one of the most positive variety. But the numbers are clear: he's starting to level off a bit, with his output over the last two weeks falling more in line with what he's done in his career offensively.

“One day at a time, one pitch at a time,” Kelly said of his success in early May. “It’s been a lot of fun. It’s been fun to see all the hard work put in and to get results because of it. It’s one of those things, we just continue to work every single day and put in the work and take it pitch to pitch.”

For the first time, Carson Kelly looks like a mere mortal at the plate

Over his last 15 games entering Sunday's series finale in Cincinnati - including Saturday's 2-for-2 effort that included two runs, a home run and an RBI, Kelly is slashing .235/.316/.353. That long ball marked the first time he'd gone yard since May 5 against the Giants. When you drop that line alongside what he's done in his career, you get almost an exact match (.228/.314/.385).

Kelly has been a slightly below-average offensive player across parts of 10 MLB seasons, but even if he matches that production from here on out, he'll still represent a steep upgrade over the catcher production the Cubs got in 2024, when they cycled through four different catchers trying to plug the hole behind the dish.

The news of Miguel Amaya's oblique injury certainly increases the importance of Kelly - and the hope is he's leveled off a bit and can hold the fort down with his fellow backstop sidelined. Signed to a two-year, $11.5 million deal last winter with a mutual option for 2027, this isn't just a one-and-done relationship. Even with Moises Ballesteros knocking on the door at Triple-A Iowa, it's definitely worth seeing how Kelly closes out the month after he's come back to earth a bit of late.