The Cubs should be monitoring a familiar AL West trade partner for reinforcements

The trade deadline may be over two months away, but 2026 has already seen some surprising teams fall into potential seller territory. The two most notable downfalls have included the New York Mets and Boston Red Sox, both of whom link up quite well with the Chicago Cubs as trade partners if they can't fight their way back into contention. However, another American League team is off to an ice-cold start and may have a piece or two to address the pitching needs of Craig Counsell's club, and it's one they've dealt with a lot lately — the Houston Astros. At 16-27 and six games out of first, speculation is mounting that they could be tearing things down before August.

It's worth noting that, because most of the AL is off to a sluggish start right now, Houston is still only four games out of a wild-card spot. As Ken Rosenthal noted to Fox Sports, Jim Crane isn't the type of owner to give in, either. Just about everything has gone wrong so far, though. The Astros' injury woes have been even worse than the Cubs', with Carlos Correa undergoing season-ending surgery to deal with a torn tendon in his ankle, Jeremy Peña suffering a hamstring strain, Hunter Brown, Christian Javier, and Josh Hader all missing significant time, and more.

Not to mention, the Astros farm system rated out as the second-worst in all of baseball entering the season, with no top-100 prospects in MLB Pipeline's rankings. Even if they're not sellers yet, they certainly have a lot of incentives pushing them down that path. With that in mind, Rosenthal shared a few names that could be on the move, assuming Houston can't turn it around soon. One name in particular, Hader, should pique the Cubs' interest.

None of the position player group mentioned really fits the Cubs' needs, but if Hader were on the market, it'd be a golden opportunity to reunite the former Brewers closer with Counsell. Another high-end arm would, in general, be welcome to pair with Daniel Palencia, especially given Hunter Harvey's recent setback. Hader hasn't pitched at all this year due to biceps tendonitis, but he's coming off another dominant year in 2025 with a 2.05 ERA and 3.25 FIP. His 2.00 expected ERA and .149 expected batting average against were also the best marks in baseball, and he was still beyond elite with 99th percentile whiff, strikeout, and chase rates.

There are two complications with a Hader pursuit, though. First, he's owed $19 million per year through 2028, which shouldn't deter the Cubs from exploring a deal, and second, he has a full no-trade clause. The prospect cost could be a bit uncomfortable, too. Assuming those obstacles are just too much to overcome, though, the Astros have other options.

The Cubs and Astros could come back together on another reliever trade

No other relief target is as enticing as Hader, but it's worth watching to see what happens with Bryan Abreu. From 2022 through 2025, the right-hander was among the most effective high-leverage arms in baseball, sporting a 2.30 ERA and 2.79 FIP across 281 2/3 innings along with an elite 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings. This year, however, the wheels have completely fallen off through his 12 2/3 innings. The strikeout rate is still elite, but between a walk rate that has more than doubled and league-worst hard-hit and barrel percentages, he's struggled to a brutal 9.24 ERA and 5.20 FIP.

If he can right the ship, or the Cubs see some obvious fix to his massive issues with inconsistency, then he could be a valuable rental piece. Although they already have a pair of lefties in Ryan Rolison and Hoby Milner, as well as Caleb Thielbar and Riley Martin on the IL, there's also the option of Steven Okert, a workhorse for last year's Astros bullpen who has similarly struggled to replicate the same success, but is far more usable with a 4.08 ERA and 4.42 FIP. Most of the damage against him can be traced to two particularly rough outings against the Red Sox and Athletics, and he's still proven capable of limiting hard hits at an elite rate.

The many pitching injuries necessitate that the Cubs start aggressively monitoring any teams falling out of contention, even if the fit isn't perfect. It's almost serendipitous, then, that one of the teams they're most familiar with is looking like a seller. These two clubs came together and sent Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly to Chicago last year. It may be best to just wait and observe for now, but perhaps they can swing another deal by the time the deadline arrives if a fit emerges.

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